The 2000 Guineas is possibly the most hotly-anticipated race of the year, with favourite City Of Troy all the rage for the race. However, with firms going odds-on about his chances, Andrew Mount debates whether he is such a good thing in his latest Myth Busters column.
The Aidan O’Brien-trained CITY OF TROY had a fantastic juvenile campaign, justifying 6-4 favouritism in a 7f good-ground maiden at the Curragh in early July before romping home by more than six lengths from Haatem in the Group 2 Superlative Stakes at and completing his hat-trick with a comfortable all-the way verdict over Alyanaabi in the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes on officially soft ground. The Dewhurst form was boosted when the third and fifth – Eben Shaddad and Haatem – filled the first two places in last month’s Craven Stakes but is City Of Troy bombproof in Saturday’s big race, the Qipco 2000 Guineas?
Much has been made of the fact that Aidan O’Brien relies solely on the son of Justify from several entries at the five-day stage but being the yard’s sole runner in 2011 didn’t help Roderic O’Connor (11th), albeit that one did start at odds of 8-1. Orpen, his sole entry in 1999 trailed home 15th as a 7-2 shot, though King Of Kings, the only Ballydoyle representative in 1998, was successful at the same price.
Those looking to oppose the short-priced favourite might want to look at his breeding rather than trainer trends, as his sire’s progeny often go backwards in their three-year-old season. Reproduced below is the record of Justify two and three-year-olds on the Flat in Britain and Ireland…
…the strike-rate drops off significantly from 29.3% to 13.1% and backing all the three-year-olds would have returned a loss of £32.62 to a £1 level stake at SP. It’s also interesting to note that only one Justify three-year-old (from 15 runners) has won on its seasonal debut, 11-10 shot London on the all-weather at Dundalk last month. That’s a small sample size but the expected number of winners was 3.80 and the beaten horses include three odds-on shots trained by Aidan O’Brien – Capulet (8-13), Red Riding Hood (4-6) and Ortelius (5-6). O’Brien pair Mayfair (13-8) and Bertinelli (2-1) both found one too good at shortish prices on their three-year-old debuts, while Andrew Balding’s Spun To Gold (fourth, 9-4) was another disappointment.
The draw could also play a key role in Saturday’s Guineas and his stall 2 of 11 berth could be a disadvantage if they come across to the near side rail. I’m leaning towards Richard Hannon’s HAATEM as the each-way alternative to the ‘good thing’. He appreciated a test of stamina last year, landing the Gorup 2 Vintage Stakes over 7f and finishing second and fifth behind City Of Troy in his other two runs over that trip. He improved markedly for the step up to 1m when landing the Craven Stakes last month and though the tailwind assisted his front-running style, the three-and-a-half-length margin of victory suggests it wasn’t down to weather conditions alone. In-form James Doyle takes the ride and, at the prices (33-1 generally), I’d rather side with him each-way than back the favourite.
2000 Guineas Tips – Preview of First Classic of 2024
The first Classic of the season has not been this hotly anticipated for many a year. With a number of exciting opponents attempting to topple the superstar favourite, Joe Napier previews the race and gives his selection. Chaldean proved best on the day at Newmarket a year ago, giving Frankie Dettori one last victory in…
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