The world of horse racing no longer allows for the old-fashioned skulduggery that used to pervade the sport. However, in this week’s Myth Busters column, Andrew Mount asks whether “gambling yards” still exist, ones which love to land a touch with a well-backed favourite.
When I first became interested in horse racing some stables were regarded as ‘gambling yards’, and rookie punters were given advice by betting shop veterans along the lines of ‘you don’t want to back one from that outfit unless the money’s down’. Barney Curley was the obvious example, and I found his runners nigh on impossible to price up when I was producing Spotlights for the Racing Post – all recent form pointed to the horse being 33-1 but it could end up going off as 7-2 favourite. The cop-out method was to put it in at 8-1 with a ‘watch the market’ comment but, either way, the forecast price would be incorrect. My Proform database goes back to 1997 and Curley’s runners since the beginning of that year until 2012 when he stopped training showed a big loss at SP…
However, splitting those runners by their position in the market (SP rank) is highly revealing…
…with favourites (including joint and co-favourites) winning 39% of their starts for a profit of £33.22 to a £1 level stake at SP. His second favourites also produced a profit (+£1.83). When I used to rep for the Martyn Of Leicester firm of on-course bookmakers I’d dread seeing a Curley runner on the card, especially at a Banded meeting at the likes of Yarmouth or Southwell. I remember getting the phone call from Paddy Power to shorten the SP of this pair in the winter of 2005 – needless to say, they both won comfortably (results courtesy of the Racing Post)…
But do ‘gambling yards’ still exist and, if so, is it possible to profit from their runners, even after the market move has been revealed for all to see?
I’ve looked at the record of SP favourites in Britain since the beginning of 2021 to see which stables have the highest WAX (winners against expected) score and there are some interesting names among the top eight…
The Gary & Josh Moore yard has a well-deserved reputation for enjoying a ‘tilt at the ring’ (an expression I was told that I couldn’t use when writing for the Racing Post) and they’ve struck with 43% of their market leaders in the study period for a profit of £52.72. The stable’s runners also have a reputation for doing best on their local tracks such as Fontwell, Plumpton and Brighton but their SP favourites who travelled more than 100 miles to the course fared exceptionally well, winning almost 50% of the time…
Jimmy Moffatt has struggled for the majority of this year, but Secret Secret (3-1 favourite) scored easily at Cartmel on July 22nd to get the yard back on track and they should be able to add to that at the same venue later this month. Moffatt’s SP favourites, who won on their latest start, were 14 from 21 in the study period for a profit of £14.15 (expected winners only 7.91).
One yard not on the above list is that of Alice Haynes but the market seems to have an uncanny knack of predicting when her horses will run well. These are her career runners (she’s only been training since 2011) split by SP rank…
Backing the yard’s runners who start in the front two in the betting is a profitable exercise, especially in non-handicaps.
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