Chester is a track renowned for its unusual, constantly turning layout, which often leads punters to backing inside draws blind. However, in his latest Myth Busters column, Andrew Mount examines whether this is still so evidently the case.
As a punter who once specialised in draw bias (I co-wrote two books on the subject in the early 2000s) I’m intrigued by some of the results at Chester this season. ‘Go low at Chester’ was the mantra of betting shop regulars when I started punting in the late 1980s/early 90s and if anyone still has a copy of Trend Horses Drawn2Win for the flat season 2004 by Andrew Mount and David Renham, page 119 states ‘statistical conclusion: low draws are best, with high draws finding it virtually impossible to win.’ Recently, I’ve heard some pundits suggest that the draw bias has been reversed and it pays to be drawn high. There was certainly some evidence of this at the latest meeting (August 4th) when the 13 runners drawn in stall 7 or higher (non-runner adjusted) produced two winners (11-1 and 9-1) and placed horses at 33-1, 14-1 and 12-1. However, it rained on watered ground that day and it has often been the case that the inside of the track rides slower when the ground is soft, especially on day two or three of a meeting. Rail movements and the false rail have also been cited as reason for more high-drawn winners scoring than in previous years, though it might just be the market adjusting and pricing the low draws more realistically than has traditionally been the case. First some background…
In the five-year period from 2000 to 2004, simply backing every runner in stall 1 or stall 2 at Chester, regardless of distance and race type (e.g. handicap, maiden), we would have found 133 winners from 712 bets (18.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £158.40 to a £1 level stake at SP (+22.25% on turnover)…
Over the next five years (2005-2009), the strike-rate dropped to 17.6% and this system returned a loss of £52.95, though it bounced back from 2010-2014 thanks to 190 winners from 996 bets (19.1%) for a profit of £88.38 to a £1 level stake at SP (+8.9% on turnover). At Betfair SP (after 2% commission) the profit was £239.99 (+24.1%)…
The next five years (2015-2019) were poor for low-draw backers….
…and they’ve also returned a big loss in recent years (2020-2024)…
Has there been a fundamental change to the track caused by rail movements and/or watering or has the market simply caught up and those drawn very low are now over-bet?
Looking at the results for stalls 1 and 2 at Chester in 2001 and 2024, gives credence to the second theory…
In 2001, there were 23 winners from 136 bets (16.9%) for a profit of £65.41…
…while so far this year the strike-rate is remarkably similar (17.1%) but the 26 winners (from 152 bets) returned a loss of £33.68. We’d have made almost 10% on turnover by laying the qualifiers blindly at Betfair SP (after 2% comm)…
We also need to talk about pace. Being drawn low at Chester can be a curse if you don’t have the early speed to take advantage of a pitch near the inside rail and splitting this year’s 152 stall 1 or stall 2 runners by Proform’s pace abbreviation makes interesting reading (L = led, P = Prominent, H = Held-up)…
As a group, stalls 1 and 2 fared poorly but those who showed early speed produced a profit, whereas only one of the 48 runners who were ridden patiently managed to score. That was 6-4 shot Cavern Club who scored by a head in a weak 1m4f Class 4 handicap on May 25th (the other four finishers have a combined subsequent record of 0-12). The years when stalls 1 and 2 fared poorly might just have been because a larger number of the runners were ridden patiently.
It’s also interesting to note the increase in the number of Chester meetings run on officially good to soft or softer going, conditions that can improve the chances of those drawn high – the ground on the inside gets cut up and the wide runners are racing on better ground. In 2002 there were only three races affecting 28 runners (the going was changed from good to good to soft after the third race of a six-race card), in 2006 there were six races (47 runners) but last year the score was 71 races (598 runners) and, so far this year, it’s 30 races (238 runners).
In conclusion, it still helps to be drawn low at Chester if you have the early speed to take advantage of it, though on good to soft or softer going (increasingly common given how quickly a little rain can saturate already-watered ground) higher draws come into play. They’re racing at Chester this Saturday (August 31st) where the ground is currently described as ‘good to firm, good in places’. The weather forecast I use suggests only 2.5mm of rain between now (Tuesday) and Saturday, so we could see watering take place. If it doesn’t then the low-draw backers could be quids in, just like they were 20 years ago.
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