Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters return with a look at an important handicap factor – do debutants in such races make good bets if attempting to follow up a win?
When writing Spotlights for the Racing Post I found some of the hardest runners to assess were those making their handicap debuts. Horses with form figures of ‘058’ could go off as 7-2 favourite or 33-1 and were desperately difficult to price up, especially those representing stables and/or owners who liked a punt. My assessment would often include phrases such as ‘watch the market’ or ‘likely best watched, unless betting suggests otherwise’ as there was so much guesswork involved. So far this year in Britain and Ireland, backing handicap debutants on the Flat (turf and all-weather) has not been a successful betting strategy…
…landing 254 of their 2464 starts (10.31% strike-rate) for a loss of £573.69 to a £1 level stake at SP (-23.28% on turnover). Laying these runners at Betfair SP would have produced a profit of £58.19 (2.36%) after 2% commission, so it’s not a brilliant lay strategy either. Recent form has not always a good pointer to Flat horses who were making their handicap debuts, with last-time out winners performing poorly this year. Those who finished second in their latest start also showed a big loss and laying both groups at Betfair SP would have returned a good profit after commission…
However, when we look at the years 2019-2023 this laying strategy would have shown a big loss and it’s likely that the current year is just a blip thanks to a small sample size.
One area of form study that receives far less attention than handicap debutants is what happens to runners having their second start in a handicap. Do those who won on their handicap debuts often follow up? Do horses who were beaten when fancied on their handicap debuts, who perhaps needed a run to get used to the different tempo of handicaps compared to novice/maiden company, take a step forward?
Handicap debut winners, next time out
Since the beginning of 2021, 1299 Flat horses (turf and all-weather) won on their handicap debut (Britain and Ireland) but only 247 followed up that win when competing in another handicap next time out…
Backing all the qualifiers would have returned a loss of £418.05 to a £1 level stake at SP, whereas laying them at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £284.86 (after 2% commission). The expected numbers of winners, based on their prices, was 291.45 giving a WAX score (winners against expected) of -44.45. Since producing these figures latest qualifier Zaragoza (9-2 favourite) bombed out at Naas, finishing tenth, and this looks like a promising lay angle. The next two qualifiers are Heat Of Passion (6.17 Chelmsford, August 6th) and Formidable Force (4.40 Pontefract, August 7th. Heat Of Passion is 6lb ‘well in’ under his penalty, having been shoved up 12lb by the handicapper for last week’s Southwell romp, though Sir Mark Prescott is has sent out just an even-money winner from 11 qualifiers in the study period.
Beaten favourites on handicap debut, next time out
Runners who were beaten on their handicap debuts when sent off as favourite (including joint and co-favourites) showed a loss on their next start (if their next outing was in another Flat handicap)…
…and laying this group would have returned a profit of 11.88% at Betfair SP (after 2m% comm). Those who were beaten favourite when making their handicap debut in a Class 2 contest had a terrible record…
…Historic City is a qualifier on this angle in the 6.17 at Chelmsford tonight (Tuesday, August 6th) and it will be fascinating to see how he gets on. At the time of writing he was trading as the 2-1 second favourite, behind 7-4 shot Heat Of Passion (see above) and I’m tempted to side with the other four runners in forecast combinations and the Tote Placepot and hope for an upset.
Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.