With the Cheltenham Festival behind us and the flat season fast approaching, Andrew Mount turns his attention to the level with his latest Myth Busters focus. With the Lincoln the highlight on Saturday, he investigates whether horses who have prepped on the all-weather have an advantage over those coming in fresh.
Ireland’s Flat turf season got underway at the Curragh on Monday and it’s Britain’s turn at Doncaster on Saturday where the feature race is the Lincoln, a heritage handicap run over the straight mile.
When I first started working in horse racing at the start of the current century it was accepted wisdom that horses fit from a recent spin on the all-weather enjoyed an advantage in the Lincoln. In the year 2000, 7-1 winner John Ferneley and 25-1 runner-up King Priam had both prepped on the all-weather, as had 16-1 fourth Pantar, and it was a similar story in 2001 when the 9-2 winner Nimello and 20-1 third King Priam had both run at Wolverhampton a fortnight earlier, with Nimello landing the Lincoln Trial. The years 2002 and 2003 were blank for last-time-out all-weather runners but they bounced back with a vengeance in 2004 when the 25-1 winner Babodana and 50-1 runner-up Quito were two of only seven qualifiers. However, the tide soon turned and only two Lincoln winners since 2004 had their final race before Doncaster on the sand and both came back in October of the previous year.
However, in the 17 renewals of the Lincoln since 2005, all 17 winners had been off the track for at least 140 days. Those who had raced within this 140-day period had a 0-140 record (expected winners = 5.08). We could have backed all 219 qualifiers who had been rested for 140 days or longer and made a profit (+£20.33 to a £1 level stake at SP). The expected numbers of winners based on their odds was only 11.81 (A/E = 1.44). Backing only the last time out winners would have seen us land eight of our 45 bets and make a profit of £25.33. This year’s qualifiers include THE GATEKEEPER, winner of the Balmoral Handicap at Ascot on Champions Day when we last saw him and THUNDER BALL, whose three turf runs at this one-mile trip produced a 66-1 fourth in the Britannia Stakes, a second by a head to The Gatekeeper on soft ground at Goodwood in August and a three-length win over the same track and trip in mid-October.
The Spring Mile – the consolation race for the Lincoln – is also a good trends race, with four-year-olds dominating. This century, four-year-olds are 17 from 196 for a profit of £122.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.84, A/E = 1.57), while five-year-olds (3-119, -£94.00), six-year-olds (2-73, -£37.00) and those aged seven or older (1-86, -£75.00) have not fared so well.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Nicky Henderson is out of form and his runners should be avoided at the Cheltenham Festival
In the past few weeks several racing journalists/pundits have voiced the opinion that trainer Nicky Henderson is out of form and that his Cheltenham Festival runners should be treated with a degree of caution. Let’s examine the yard’s recent form to give us some background… Since the beginning of February (until the close of play…
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