The Chester May meeting is often seen as a real chance for punters to make money over the bookies, but is this borne out by the stats? That is what Andrew Mount looks into in his latest Myth Busters column, looking into the advantage of the draw.
Chester is an easy punting track as we just back low draws if we want to make a profit.
There are lost Amazonian tribes who know that a low draw is an advantage at Chester, but can we make money by siding with those drawn closest to the inside rail at the three-day May meeting this week?
The following table shows the record of handicappers, split by draw, at the last five Chester May meetings (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023)…
33 of the 83 races were won by stalls 1, 2 or 3 but we’d have made a loss of £52.13 to a £1 level stake at SP by backing the qualifiers blindly (-20.93% on turnover)…
Examination of the running style of those 249 horses is very revealing (L = led, P = prominent, H = held up)…
…clearly it was a big advantage to race up with the pace with ten winners (from 40 qualifiers) making all or most of the running for a profit of £50.12. Surely, all we need to do is to check the last-time out running style of the low-drawn runners and just back the ones who led last time? However, let’s have a look to see how the 40 front-runners were ridden last time…
…those who were ridden patiently last time showed a profit, as did those ridden prominently but the last-time out pacesetters returned a small loss.
So, if we can’t just use draw/pace analysis to profit this week what other angles can we explore. One possibility is to look at race type last time out and give preference to those who prepped on the all-weather. This might seem counterintuitive as Chester is a turf course, but the configuration of most all-weather tracks (usually sharp) is closer aligned to that of the Roodee than galloping turf tracks such as Newbury and Newmarket where plenty of May meeting runners will have prepped. Here are the handicap results for the last five years, regardless of draw…
We’d have made a small profit simply by siding with any runner whose last race came on the all-weather. Splitting the all-weather preppers by draw also makes interesting reading…
Four of the five lowest stalls showed a profit and backing those drawn in stall 5 or lower would have found 15 winners from 95 bets for a profit of £46.13 (expected winners = 9.65, A/E = 1.55).
These are the results split by distance – the shorter races produced the profits…
In total, 30 horses who prepped on the all-weather were drawn in stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 or 5 in a Chester May meeting handicap over 5f-7f in the last five years and six won for a profit of £60.50. This is a very small sample but it’s an interesting angle. Wednesday’s eight qualifiers are listed below and it will be fascinating to see if they can further boost that impressive profit figure…
1.30 Old Chums, Call Glory
2.35 Moonstone Boy, Blue Storm, Due For Luck, Kings Merchant
4.45 G’Daay, Way To Dubai
Chester Tips – Four Selections on Day One of May Meeting
Chester’s May meeting is one of the most enjoyable festivals in northern racing. With clues aplenty for big races later in the season, Joe Napier has four tips for you to follow at the track on Wednesday. 2.05 Chester – CAA Stellar Lily Agnes EBF Conditions Stakes Any draw above stall five has been a…
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