The low draw dilemma proved as prevalent a discussion point as ever during the Chester May meeting last week. Andrew Mount discussed that in last week‘s column, but turns his attentions to a broader question for this week: should being gelded be regarded as a negative for flat horses?
The Nigel Tinkler-trained Duran trailed home last of the 14 runners when 50-1 for a Redcar novice contest on his racecourse debut in May of last year, receiving a Racing Post Rating (RPR) of just six. We didn’t see him again for a year until reappearing at Nottingham earlier this week where he put in a much-improved effort, finishing third of 12 at odds of 125-1 and receiving a RPR of 55. The son of Invincible Spirit had been gelded after his initial outing and the procedure certainly brought about improvement.
Almost all male jumps horses are geldings, but the majority of Flat runners start their racing careers as colts, often in the hope, rather than expectation, that they will be good enough to have a career at stud and earn their connections a fortune. Google ‘why are racehorses gelded’ and you’ll get an answer along these lines…
‘Castration allows a male animal to be more calm, better-behaved, less sexually aggressive, and more responsive to training efforts.’
When it comes to assessing the race and the impact of a gelding operation how should be view it? As a positive or a negative?
Since the beginning of 2021, colts (aged four or younger) have a 14.14% strike-rate on the Flat in Britain and Ireland, compared to 10.95% for geldings in the same age range and the colts have a PRB score (percentage of rivals beaten) of 39.85 compared to 35.70 for geldings, suggesting that gelding is a negative angle.
However, that 10.95% strike-rate increased to 12.2% for those having their first run since a gelding operation and rose again to 13.29% for second-start geldings, suggesting that we can expect improvement from recently gelded runners. We’d have made a loss at SP by backing all runners on their first start or second start after a gelding operation though the second-timers produced a profit of £1277.52 to a £1 stake at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) thanks to 522 winners from 3928 bets. It’s these second run after gelding qualifiers that I want to concentrate on to find a few punting systems for this article.
Trainers
Andrew Balding is 23 from 94 with his two, three or four-year-old runners on their second start since a gelding operation in the study period and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £13.16 to a £1 level stake at SP. Charlie Fellowes – ten from 31 (+£84.55) has even more impressive stats, while Clive Cox (ten from 46, +£27.93) also fares well. In Ireland, Johnny Murtagh (eight from 27, +£21.13) is a trainer to keep a close eye on. Sir Michael Stoute (0-27) is a surprising name at the other end of the league table, while Archie Watson (five from 63, -£35.83) and Marco Botti (three from 39, -£21.33) have also struggled.
Breeding
The sire angle is also worth considering when it comes to assessing the prospects of young geldings on their second start after the operation. Kodiac progeny (15 from 111, +£31.80), Dark Angel (21 from 107, +£14.41), Lope De Vega (14 from 61, +£10.11) and New Bay (nine from 35, +£21.75) all come out well on the figures. At the other end of the scale caution should be advised where progeny of Dubawi (five from 58, -£43.25), Mastercraftsman (two from 31, -£24.84), Starspangledbanner (four from 54, -£35.42), Camelot (one from 30, -£23.00) and Galileo (two from 32, -£23.88) are concerned.
Race type
The second run after a gelding operation angle has been a positive punting system in all-weather handicaps of late, with those aged four or younger landing 165 of their 1102 starts (15% strike-rate) since the start of 2021 for a profit of £155.22 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£498.28 at Betfair SP). Progeny of Lope De Vega were seven from 17 on this angle (+£18.50) and two of the beaten runners finished second at 14-1.
York Tips – Day One Selections at Dante Festival
York’s Dante Festival arrives on Wednesday, heralding a top three days of racing in the north east. Our in-house tipster Joe Napier has picked out his four best bets in the opening four races to get you off to a flyer. 2.15 York – Sky Bet Race To The Ebor Jorvik Handicap Plenty of course…
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