I’ve heard the expression “Sedgefield form doesn’t travel” from racing pundits on numerous occasions (as recently as last week on William Hill radio) and I’ve often downgraded the chance of Sedgefield winners when they change venue for their next start. However, I’ve never dug into the stats in detail, and I want to use this article to examine that theory and look at other tracks where it might be true.
1 – Sedgefield
Since 2021, this is the record of last time out Sedgefield winners when they bid to follow up at a different venue…
71 of the 304 qualifiers were successful (23.36% strike-rate) and backing them blind would have returned a loss of £11.77 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, that loss became a profit at Betfair SP (+£29.63 to a £1 stake, after 2% commission) and the number of winners exceed expectations (WAX score of 12.61).
Splitting the results by Race Type LTO makes interesting reading, as the chasers fared poorly compared to the hurdlers…
…backing the Sedgefield last time out (LTO) chase winners returned a loss of £16.21, whereas the hurdlers showed a profit of £5.44. Sedgefield’s fences are notoriously easy to negotiate and it’s possible that the chase winners got away with jumping errors here but not at other venues. Going back to the start of the current century, the record of last time out Sedgefield chase winners, who were bidding to follow up in another chase (away from Sedgefield) was 141 from 746 (18.90% strike-rate) for a loss of £162.52.
We’d only have made 3.22% profit on turnover by siding with last-time-out Sedgefield hurdle winners in the past few years but those who were returned to the track relatively quickly (within 28 days) did extremely well if switched to a different venue, landing 30 of their 85 starts for a profit of £45.79…
I’M RAVENOUS, who runs in the 2.57 at Bangor today (Tuesday, October 29th) qualifies on this angle and it will be fascinating to see how he gets on.
2 – Ayr
Ayr is another track that produces plenty of course experts, especially over fences. One betting system that I’ve been following for several years is to back last time out Ayr chase winners when they bid to follow up in another Ayr chase. These are the results since the beginning of 2012…
27 winners from 78 bets for a profit of £43.41 to a £1 level stake at SP.
In the same period, backing Ayr chase winners who were switched to a different venue (chases only) would have returned a loss of £117.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. Laying the same horses would have made a profit of £88.18…
3 – Chepstow
Chepstow is another unique venue that produces plenty of course experts and, since racing resumed after COVID in June 2020, simply backing runners in chases at the Welsh venue who prepped in another Chepstow chase, regardless of where they finished, would have found 30 winners from 120 bets for a profit of £48.61…
…there are three qualifiers today, who all go in the 2.35 – namely IBERIO, LEISSIERES EXPRESS and KING TURGEON. Combination Trifecta anyone?
Summary
- Sedgefield chase form usually doesn’t travel to other venues
- Sedgefield hurdles form is often underrated by the market, with those LTO winners who were returned to the track quickly (1-28 days) showing a healthy profit
- Ayr chase winners often make good bets when bidding to follow up in another Ayr chase
- Horses who ran over fences at Chepstow last time out, regardless of where the finished, have a good record when returned to the Welsh venue for another chase on their next start
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