The Grand National meeting always comes quickly after the Cheltenham Festival. Many believe this can have a significant effect on the performance of horses who run at both meetings and Andrew Mount’s latest Myth Busters column focuses on this theory.
Easter can play havoc with the positioning of horse racing fixtures at this time of year and the recovery time from the Cheltenham to Aintree festivals can vary markedly. This year, Grand National Day falls on Saturday, April 13th, 32 days after the runners jumped off for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, whereas in 2022 the gap was just 24 days (15th March to April 8th).
Plenty of podcast discussions and column inches will be devoted to the significance of the gap between the two meetings and how it can impact on a horse’s chance of winning, so I thought it was time to take an in-depth look at it.
Cheltenham Runners at Aintree
Looking at the last five Aintree festivals (2018, 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023), 52 winners (from 499 runners) had competed at the Cheltenham festival and backing them all would have resulted in a loss of £139.72 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners (based on their odds) was 52.01 (A/E = 1.00) so they performed exactly as the market suggested.
Splitting those 499 runners by DSLR (days since last run) using the Proform database gives us the following stats….
Again, there’s no great advantage to having a longer break between the two festivals. Grouping all those who had a break of 24 days or less gives us 25 winners from 249 bets against an expected score of 25.17 (A/E = 0.99).
Now let’s examine those horses who ran first or second at Cheltenham before lining up at Aintree. They had a fine overall record at Aintree, landing 23 of their 83 starts (27.7%) at the past five festivals for a profit of £12.28 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 18.62, A/E = 1.24). Splitting those 83 runners by DSLR makes interesting reading – the longer the gap between Cheltenham and Aintree, the greater the strike-rate…
These are the figures for those who ran in non-handicap company at Cheltenham…
The sample sizes are small, but it does suggest that horses who ran very well at Cheltenham, finishing first or second, benefitted from a break of more than four weeks.
Focus on Paul Nicholls
In recent years Paul Nicholls has focused more on Aintree than Cheltenham and is quite happy to wait for this meeting. The following table shows how is number of Cheltenham runners has declined in recent years…
Nicholls is ten from 91 with his runners at the past five Aintree festivals, with those who prepped at Cheltenham scoring just once from 27 attempts (11-1 shot Politologue in 2018). He had 17 qualifiers start at single-figure odds and all were beaten. Backing the yard’s runners in Grade 1 or Grade 2 contests at Aintree, who prepped at any track other than Cheltenham, would have found eight winners from 33 bets for a profit of £7.40 (expected winners = 4.86, A/E = 1.65). Backing only those who prepped at Ascot or Newbury would have found seven winners from 18 bets for a profit of £20.50 (expected winners = 2.82, A/E = 2.49).
In Summary
Horses who ran well at Cheltenham (defined as finishing first or second) have a superior strike-rate at Aintree when the gap between the two festivals is longer, as it is this year.
Pay close attention to any Paul Nicholls-trained runners in Grade 1 or Grade 2 contests who missed Cheltenham, especially those who prepped at Ascot or Newbury.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Horses Fit From the All-Weather Have an Advantage in the Lincoln
With the Cheltenham Festival behind us and the flat season fast approaching, Andrew Mount turns his attention to the level with his latest Myth Busters focus. With the Lincoln the highlight on Saturday, he investigates whether horses who have prepped on the all-weather have an advantage over those coming in fresh. Ireland’s Flat turf season…
Tue 19 Mar 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
Make sure you’re following us on all our social media platforms to keep up to date with all the latest horse racing news and the best tips.