It is the race that so often bewilders and amazes punters and pundits, but is the Grand National really such an unpredictable lottery? That is the question Andrew Mount seeks to answer below, with his latest Myth Busters column focusing on the world’s greatest steeplechase.
After Mon Mome’s 100-1 Grand National victory in 2009 the Daily Telegraph went with the headline ‘Mon Mome Proves Grand National Really Is A Lottery’ and the 50-1 success of Noble Yeats in 2022 certainly added weight to that argument. So, when our non-punting friends and relatives ask us for tips on Saturday, do we just say ‘sharpen your lucky pin’ or can we use form study and statistics to try to land on the winner with skill rather than luck?
When using trends to narrow the field of a big race we need to give more credence to recent renewals. The Kim Muir at the Cheltenham festival is a good example – when I first started punting on this race the golden rule was not to back an Irish-trained runner but how times change – they’ve landed five of the last six renewals and had four of the first five home this season. The Grand National is also a very different beast since the fences were modified ahead of the 2015 running of the race, with younger horses coming to the fore. Traditionalists couldn’t have seven-year-old Noble Yeats, who was having just his eighth start over fences at Aintree, as a realistic contender but the easier fences rendered the age/experience stats redundant. Since the modifications, 139 horses aged ten or older have run in the Grand National and all were beaten (the expected number of winners from that sample was 2.64). This would certainly worry me if I was going to wade in on last year’s winner Corach Rambler, now a ten-year-old.
Another popular stat in the 1990s and early part of this century was weight – ‘You can’t win a National carrying more than 11 stone’. Then Many Clouds defied 11-09 in 2015 and Tiger Roll carried 11-05 to victory in 2019, suggesting that this angle is not as important as it once was.
Early pace was another angle that used to be regarded as hugely important when it came to finding the National winner – the theory being that front-runners/prominent racers would keep out of trouble and avoid being brought down by fallers or hampered by loose horses. However, there are fewer fallers in the race nowadays and we’ve seen a number of patiently ridden winners, notably One For Arthur in 2017 (‘held up towards rear’) and Noble Yeats in 2022 (‘held up in rear’). The Proform database allocates a simple pace rating to every runner based on its last three starts – front-runners get four points, prominent racers are allotted two points and hold-up horses get zero, giving every horse a score of between zero and 12. Since the fence modifications in 2015, all eight winners (from a total 0f 202) runners had a rating of four or less. Those rated six or higher were zero from 113 (expected winners = 2.96). Had we simply backed all those aged nine or younger, with a pace rating of between zero for four we’d have landed eight of our 116 bets and made a profit of £47.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.82). Siding only with those who completed the course last time out would have found eight winners from 98 bets for a profit of £65.00. Limiting out bets to Irish-trained runners would have found five winners from 41 bets for a profit of £72.00.
Grand National runners who prepped over hurdles were successful in 2010 (Don’t Push It) and 2014 (Pineau De Re) but they are 0-26 since the fences were made much easier in 2015 and only one of the 26 placed. Perhaps more importantly nowadays is a warm-up over fences at Cheltenham. This angle has found five of the last eight winners, including four of the last five. It also pointed us towards 100-1 runner-up Balko Des Flos in 2021. We would have made a small profit (+£8.00) by backing all 94 qualifiers in the past eight years but that becomes +£44.00 if throw in the aged nine or younger angle and +£59.00 if we also add a Proform pace rating of between zero and four. Top of my shortlist for this year’s contest is seven-year-old MEETINGOFTHEWATERS, third of 21 under a patient ride in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham festival last month. Eight-year-old KITTY’S LIGHT also scored well on the stats but he’s 35th in the weights and not guaranteed a run.
Grand National Trends 2024 – All the vital stats for Aintree marathon
There have been many changes to the Grand National over many years, but this renewal will see the field size cut from 40 to 34 which shouldn’t have a huge impact in finding the winner but both Auroras Encore (2013) & Minella Times (2021) were number 35 winners. I’m going to look at the last…
Mon 08 Apr 2024Looking For More Racing Info? Check Out Our Racecards & Top Tips Sections
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