We move on to the New Course for day three of the Cheltenham festival and the action gets underway with the Dawn Run…
1.20 – Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Age
The last ten winners were aged five or six, Juveniles were 0-9, while horses aged seven or older were 0-26…
Trainer Nationality
Irish trainers are leading the way, with seven wins…
Running Style
Seven winners ridden patiently (H for held up in the table below, two were prominent (P) and one made the running (L)…
Finishing Position LTO
All ten winners had finished in the top three in their prep race. Backing all 134 qualifiers returned a loss at SP (+12.33) but a profit of £56.06 at Betfair SP after 2% commission…
Four winners, including three of the last four, were stepping back in trip after scoring over 2m3f or further and backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.88…
Course LTO
Five of the ten winners prepped at Leopardstown or Sandown…
…and backing all 25 qualifiers returned a profit of £14.38. Backing qualifiers with a top three-finish at those two tracks would have found five winners from 18 bets (+£21.38). The Sandown winners ran in the Jane Seymour which was transferred to Warwick this year and won by Kingston Queen from White Noice and A Path To Ronda.
Conclusion
CARRIGMORNASPRUCE took her career record to 211321122 (4-9) when chasing home Skylight Hustle in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown over Christmas and her patient running style will hold her in good stead. It’s possible that Jamie Snowden’s A PATH TO RONDA will prove best right-handed but the cut back to a strongly-run 2m after her Jane Seymour third will suit this sometimes-keen sort and her trainer has won this before.
2.00 – Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (Grade 2)
This is only the second running of the Jack Richards but it’s worth mentioning the strong pace to front-runners in chases on Cheltenham’s New Course and early pace certainly dominated last year, with the first six finishers – priced at 7-1, 125-1, 66-1, 9-1, 33-1 and 4-1 – described by the Racing Post as “prominent early, led from 1st”, “led early, prominent 1st”, “prominent”, “in touch with leaders”, “in touch with leaders, prominent 4th” and “in touch with leaders”.
3.20 – Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (Grade 1)
Age
Seven-year-olds have performed well in recent years, landing six of the last ten runners. Backing all 36 qualifiers returned a profit of £48.60 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.70, A/E = 2.23)…
…perming the seven-year-olds in the Tote Exacta or computer straight forecast would have hit the one-two in 2019 (11-8 beat 33-1) and in 2020 (50-1 beat 2901, Exacta paid £1,464).
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers have taken seven of the last ten renewals…
Running style
Seven winners came from off the pace (H = held up), two made all (L = led) and one was prominent (P)…
Days since last run
Those who had raced within the past four weeks fared poorly…
Race type last time out
Those who prepped over fences failed to score from 14 runners…
Race classification last time out
All ten winners prepped in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest. Those that didn’t were 0-17…
System
Backing seven-year-olds who were returning from a break of at least 29 days and prepped in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company would have found six winners from 32 bets for a profit of £52.63 at SP (+£124.38 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
Conclusion
Genuinely soft or heavy going could make Teahupoo hard to beat but he’s priced up as though the ground will be in his favour, and he can’t be supported antepost. Last year’s winner Bob Olinger, four from four at Cheltenham (three on the New Course), is highly respected despite advancing years while fellow 11-year-old Home By The Lee will have each-way possibilities, especially if the mud is flying. However, in the hope of good to soft or faster going the suggestion is MA SHANTOU. He was Emma Lavelle’s first runner to score on his handicap hurdle debut following a Grade 1 prep since Paisley Park (winner of this race in 2019) and the seven-year-old is the right age for this.
4.40 – Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Penultimate Start
This is an odd but interesting stat. Pertemps Final runners who finished first or second on their penultimate start (perhaps showing their hand too early in the season?) had a poor record, with a 0-95 record in the past ten runnings…
..whereas those who had finished third or fourth in their prep race (this often occurred in a Pertemps Qualifier) would have found seven winners from 50 bets for a profit of £59.00…
..this angle would have seen us safely through to the next leg of the Placepot in each of the past ten seasons.
Headgear
Nine of the last ten winners wore a tongue-tie…
…and backing all 50 qualifiers returned a profit of £75.00. none of the runners priced up at 25-1 or shorter wore a tongue-tie last time out. Ambon View (33-1) wore a first-time tongue-tie when third at Chepstow the other day and would have possibilities for the Jersey Scott yard. American Mike, Monmiral, Small Town Here, Tranquil Sea and Eyed, who were all priced at 33-1 or bigger at the time of writing, have also been tongue-tied recently.
Running Style
Nine winners came from off the pace, one was prominent (from 63 qualifiers) while front-runners were 0-10.
Conclusion
The aforementioned AMBION VIEW is of interest, but my main each-way play is Nicky Henderson’s BOLD ENDEAVOUR, a 50-1 fourth in the race two years ago when his stable’s festival runners were badly out of sorts. The veteran son of Fame And Glory lost his way after that run, finishing 11th and 13th in two more runs in the spring of 2024 and showed very little in three goes for Laura Morgan last term. However, the return to Henderson’s care sparked a revival at Huntingdon in January where he finished a four and-a-half-length third in a qualifier and his sire’s progeny tend to improve with age. That run came off 130, 13lb lower than when placed in 2024, and his three other Cheltenham runs produced a 22-1 fifth of 26 to Langer dan in the 2023 Coral cup and two runner-up efforts on the New Course (2m4.5f and 3m).
5.20 – Rosconn Group Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
Days Since Last Run
Those making a quick return to action (28 days or sooner) have fared well, with six of the last ten winners falling into this category…
Running Style
Cheltenham’s New Course favours early pace but the bias often goes out of the window in raced confined to amateur jockeys, who sometimes go off too fast. Runners ranked one, two, three or four by Proform’s pace ratings (i.e. those judged most likely to make the running based on their recent chase starts) have a combined record of one from 55 for a loss of 46.00…
…albeit the expected number of winners was only 1.95.
Age
Horses aged nine and older have a combined record of one from 100 in the past ten renewals…
Trainer Nationality
Seven of the last ten winners were Irish trained…
