The first of my Cheltenham Angles pieces takes a look at the Gold Cup.
Stats and trends
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers have taken nine of the past ten renewals, though backing all the qualifiers would have returned a loss of £5.64 to a £1 level stake at SP..
Age
Nine of the past ten winners were aged seven or eight…
…the seven-year-olds had by far the highest PRB (% of rivals beaten) figure at 67.49%. Backing this age group blind would have returned a profit of £11.88 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Market position
Five of the last ten favourites were successful and backing them blind returned a profit of £5.86 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…all ten winners returned at 12-1 or shorter. Those with an SP of 14-1 or bigger were 0-69 (expected winners = 2.06).
Market position last time out
Eight of the last ten winners had started as favourite (or joint/co favourite) in their prep race…
…and backing all 41 qualifiers returned a profit of £3.86.
Previous Cheltenham festival experience
All ten winners had run at the festival previously, though backing all 112 qualifiers returned a loss of £50.65…
Six of those had win at the festival before but, again, this wasn’t a profitable punting angle…
Days since last run
Those who had raced within the past 31 days had a poor record…
The Main Contenders
GALOPIN DES CHAMPS took this in 2023 and 2024 before finding Inothewayurthinkin six lengths too good last year. Willie Mullins’ ten-year-old has won ten of his 14 starts on left-handed tracks for a profit of £10.76 to a £1 level stake at SP and, while his Savills Chase third to Affordale Fury was a little underwhelming, the ground was faster than ideal, and he remains a place contender.
INOTHEWAYURTHINKIN got progressively closer to the winner in each of his three runs before landing this race in impressive fashion last season, going down by 36, 16 and seven lengths before Cheltenham glory. His 53-length defeat over 2m3.5f at Punchestown on November’s reappearance was widely anticipated and the market (he drifted from 9-4 to 13-2) told us he was going to finish out the back of the TV in the Savills despite his trainer’s comments to the contrary. He was my pick when we discussed this race in GG’s Jumps Season Preview – with the proviso that we couldn’t back him until close to the race as he’d likely be brought along steadily to peak in March – and I’ve not entirely lost the faith. He’s still only a 6-1 shot (from the pre-season 4-1) and I’d rather wait until the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) in the hope/expectation that he bounces back to form at that fixture.
Last year’s Arkle winner JANGO BAIE returned from wind surgery with an impressive success over Gidleigh Park at Ascot (2m5f) and stamina was not an issue in the King George at Kempton where he kept on off the albeit steady early gallop to finish a half-length fourth behind The Jukebox Man. Nico De Boinville took the Adam Kondrat route that day (i.e. very wide) and he has solid claims of maintaining his 100% Cheltenham record (he also won on the New Course in December 2024).
THE JUKEBOX MAN had his head in front when the music stopped in the King George, scoring by a nose from Banbridge. That took his career record to 21113221111 (7-11) and he’s difficult to knock, despite having failed to impress on the clock.
GAELIC WARRIOR went down by a nose and the same when third in the King George to take his record over 2m6f or further to 1113 (3-4). He seems to have been around forever but is still only an eight-year-old and the current 10-1 looks more than fair.
GREY DAWNING was my antepost suggestion for this race prior to the beginning of last season but a slog in the mud at Haydock on his reappearance didn’t help and he was pulled up in the King George at Kempton where he clearly didn’t enjoy the right-handed track. He missed the festival but put himself into this season’s Gold Cup picture with a second place to Gaelic Warrior in the Bowl at Aintree and reappeared with a smooth success in the Betfair Chase. The Cotswold Chase is likely to be next on the agenda, and the 2024 Turners winner makes some each-way appeal at odds of around 12-1.
AFFORDALE FURY tends to jump out to his right and for that reason I was happy to ignore his claims in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown. He did lose ground by jumping persistently out to his right but that didn’t prevent him from scoring by two and a half lengths from I Am Maximus. Noel Meade’s eight-year-old has only beaten 55.83% of his rivals in this direction (as opposed to 82.87% on right-handed tracks) but is still hard to dismiss on the strength of his latest effort.
HAITI COULEURS bounced back from his Betfair Chase flop to land the Welsh Grand National. His career scored now stands at eight wins from 14 starts (+£25.71 to a £1 level stake at SP) and it’s likely that his Haydock run came too soon – just 16 days after his Newbury reappearance win. His record when rested for at least four weeks since his latest start stands at 41121131111 (8-11), with the first defeat at 25-1 when upped to Grade 2 level after finishing second in a Ludlow maiden on his hurdles debut, the second place on his chase debut and the third place when reverting to hurdles at Newbury last February in a prep for his Cheltenham festival run (he comfortably landed the National Hunt Challenge Cup).
FASTORSLOW could only finish sixth of 11 when a 9-2 shot for the Savills but Martin Brassil’s ten-year-old has never been at his best in the winter months. His record in the spring (March to May) stands at 22221U1 (2-7) and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him in the first three or four.
Henry De Bromhead has saddled two winners (9-1 and 3-1), two seconds (7-1 and 100-30) and a pair of fourths (20-1 and 8-1) from 11 runners in the past ten Gold Cups and his MONTY’S STAR could sneak into the frame. The nine-year-old kept on well when runner-up to Fact To File in the 2024 Ryanair Chase and he had excuses when a 19-length fourth to Inothewayurthinkin in this race 12 months ago, nearly losing his rider after a bad mistake at the ninth and later being hampered by a faller. His staying on fifth to Affordale Fury in the Savills was a step back in the right direction.
Conclusion
This is shaping up to be one of the most open and competitive Gold Cups for years and it’s currently 6-1 the field. It’s difficult to recommend ten-year-old Galopin Des Champs at shortish odds and, while I still think last year’s winner Inothewayurthinkin is capable of bouncing back to that sort of form, he can’t be backed at odds of around 6-1 until he shows signs of spark. The British challenge looks exceptionally strong this year with my current order of preference being JANGO BAIE (8-1), GREY DAWNING (12-1) and Haiti Couleurs. I can happily throw a win dart at the first two-named at this stage. Fastorslow, a general 50-1 shot, also makes some appeal.
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