During the jumps season we’re used to British trainers being on the receiving end of a good kicking from Willie Mullins and other Irish trainers. It must have been heartbreaking for Dan Skelton to try all season to land his first trainers championship only for Mullins to win easily despite not seemingly bothered until the last few weeks of the campaign (bit like a bloke I know who can have a skinful on Friday night, smoke like a chimney and still do a 5k ParkRun in less than 20 minutes on Saturday morning). However, the narrative can be different on the Flat, despite Aidan O’Brien’s recent dominance in the majority of the Derby and Oaks trials at Chester, Lingfield and York.
O’Brien often mops up the better juvenile contests in Britain too but there are certain Flat race categories where it pays to back British-trained runners in Ireland, something that would seem unimaginable in the national hunt game. Group-race sprints for older horses is the first category that springs to mind and a quick glance at the recent roll of honour for the 6f Weatherby Ireland Greenlands Stakes – a Group 2 contest run at the Curragh this Saturday (3.05) – is a good starting point…
British trained horses have won five of the past ten renewals, including the last three, and those wins came from just 18 runners…
…backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £21.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£33.08 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Last year, the five qualifiers finished first, second, fourth, fifth and sixth and the CSF paid over 82-1.
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This year’s renewal has 24 declared of which 15 are British based. It’s hard to narrow it down until the final declarations, going and draw are known but trainer stats could prove helpful. Ten British trainers have entries, and the following table shows their record in Ireland this century…
The stand outs are Karl Burke (look at that WAX – winners above expected – score), William Haggas and Charles Hills. Their combined record in Ireland is illustrated below…
One other British yard not listed above that often does well in Ireland is that of Richard Fahey, whose record since the beginning of 2018 is as follows…
…a 23.26% strike-rate and a vey healthy profit of £46.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Eliminating his runners at Naas would have boosted the profits considerably…
On the subject of Group-race sprints for older horses it’s interesting to note that several of those trainers who have entries in the Greenlands have won seven of the last eight renewals of the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock (Saturday, 3.30), namely Clive Cox (x3), Charles Hills (x2), Karl Burke (x1) and Andrew Balding (x1). Cox has only had four runners in this 5f contest and three of them won at nice prices…
…the exception was 3-1 shot Reckless Abandon, who ‘won’ the race on the unfavoured far side when beaten by half a length into third place in 2013. This year, he relies on JASOUR, winner of the Commonwealth Trial Stakes at Ascot last year before finishing third to Inisherin in the main event at the Royal meeting. His form tailed off subsequently, but he tends to come to hand early and could be the one to side with it stays relatively dry. The draw can also pay a huge role in this race, with the 2023 renewal being the best recent example – the first four home came from stalls 10, 12, 13 and 11 of 13.
Summary
Pay close attention to British-trained Flat runners in Ireland, especially in sprints for older horses like Saturday’s Greenlands Stakes. Karl Burke, Williams Haggas, Charles Hills and Richard Fahey are names to keep a close eye on.
Consider backing JASOUR in the Temple Stakes at Sandown on Saturday if the ground is good or faster.