We’re only a couple of weeks away from York’s Ebor meeting – one of my favourite fixtures of the Flat racing calendar – and I wanted to use this week’s column to look at some punting angles for the first day (Wednesday 19th August)…
1.50 – Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)
Age
This 5f89y handicap has been part of York’s Ebor meeting since 2009 and it has never been won by a three-year-old…
Horse sex
All winners since 2009 were geldings. Fillies, mares, colts and entire horses had a combined record of 0-45…
Running style
Three of the last four winners made the running, six others raced prominently and horses ridden patiently were just one from 107 (Trefor last year)…
Proform’s pace ratings are a useful predictor, with those with a rating between 0 and 4 (on a scale of 1-12) providing just two winners from 117 bets for a loss of £94.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Draw
Six of the past ten winners were drawn in stall 7 or lower…
Days since last run
All 17 previous winners had raced within the past four weeks. Those absent for 29 days or longer were 0-67…
Finishing position LTO
Seven of the last ten winners finished first or second last time out and backing all 47 qualifiers returned a profit of £54.00…
…those who had raced within the past four weeks and were drawn in stall 10 or lower were seven from 21 for a profit of £80.00…
…only three of those were stepping back from 6f and all three won (22-1, 7-1 and 4-1).
2.25 – Acomb Stakes (Group 3)
Day since last run
Those who lined up after a very recent outing had a poor record in the 11-year study period…
Finishing position last time out
All 11 winners won their prep race…
Race class last time out
All 11 winners were stepping up in grade, nine of them from Class 4 or 5 level…
Number of previous runs
Ten of the 11 winners had raced just once or twice in Britain/Ireland previously…
3.00 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2)
Race classification last time out (since 2015, eleven renewals)
Those whose latest start came in a Group 1 contest have won seven of the past eleven renewals and backing all 18 qualifiers returned a profit of £23.75 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners have a modest recent record, with just two winners from 27 runners across the past 11 renewals…
Distance last time out
Runners who prepped over 1m5f or further last time out have a poor record in the study period…
4.10 – Sky Bet Stayers Handicap
Age
This 2m heritage handicap has only been open to three-year-olds in the past five seasons but none have run in that period.
Finishing position last time out
Eight of the last 11 winners had recorded a top-three finish last time out…
…and backing all 70 qualifiers returned a profit of £1.75 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Running style
Seven of the past 11 winners were ridden patiently, while the other four were prominent. Front-runners were 0-12.
Running style last time out
Nine of the last 11 winners were ridden patiently in their prep race…
System
Those runners who were ridden patiently when finishing in the top three in their prep race have taken seven of the last 11 renewals for a profit of £27.75…
Last year’s three qualifiers were all beaten but they included the 28-1 runner-up and 6-1 fourth.
5.20 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap (Class 2)
Running style
Nine of the last 11 winners of this 6f nursery led or raced prominently.
Finishing position last time out
Seven of the last 11 winners had been successful in their prep race though backing all 65 qualifiers saw us finish straight across…
Those who won last time out, split by running style, is revealing…
…with only one winner from 31 runners for those ridden patiently.
Draw
Eight of the 11 winners were drawn 7 or lower…
