This week’s article covers the stats and trends for Haydock’s Betfair Chase meeting on Saturday, November 22nd.
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12.08 – 1m7.5f Betfair Supports Safer Gambling Week Newton Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2)
Flat form
Runners who had won on the Flat are 0-7 in the past ten years, with the last three beaten at odds of 9-4 (second), 11-4 (fifth) and 7-2 (third).
Market position
SP favourites have a good record, winning six of the past ten renewals for a profit of £4.75 to a £1 level stake at SP…
1.15 Haydock2m3f Betfair Racing Podcasts Handicap Hurdle
Weight rank
Top weights (including joint or co-top weights) have struggled in the past ten years, failing to register a win from 14 attempts, with only two finishing in the first three…
Age
Nine of the ten winners were aged six or younger, with five-year-olds faring especially well…
Previous hurdle wins
Eight of the past ten winners had one or two previous hurdle wins to their name.
System
Backing those aged five or younger who had won once or twice over hurdles would have found six winners from 19 bets for a profit of £10.50…
This year’s qualifiers are KARAFON (33-1 best at the time of writing), GEORGE’S LAD (8-1), BALKO D’ANGE (10-1) and ANDASHAN (8-1).
2.25 Haydock – 3m Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
This used to be a fixed brush handicap hurdle but has been run over regular hurdles since 2017 and the stats below cover the eight renewals in that period.
Finishing position last time out
Seven of the eight winners finished first or second in their prep race and backing all 55 qualifiers returned a profit of £11.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£27.65 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
Handicap or non-handicap last time out
All eight winners contested a handicap last time out…
…those that didn’t were 0-31.
Race class last time out
Runners who contested another Class 1 contest last time out were just one from 34 in the study period (Sam Spinner in 2017) and returned a loss of £27.00. Five of the eight winners contested a Class 2 contest…
Weight rank
Seven of the eight winners were ranked between fourth and ninth in the weights and backing all 46 qualifiers returned a profit of £38.75…
Jockey claim
Jockeys claiming a 5lb or 7lb allowance had a good record…
..scoring on four occasions including in four of the past five years.
System
Backing those runners who had finished first or second in a Class 2 handicap hurdle last time out would have found five winners from 22 bets for a profit of £30.25…
This year’s qualifiers include ELECTRIC MASON (14-1), who caught the eye when a best-of-the-prominent-racers second of 17 to a Shantou at Cheltenham last time.
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3.00 Haydock – 3m Betfair Chase (Grade 1)
Market position
All ten winners were in the top three in the betting and backing them blind returned a profit…
Days since last run
Six winners were making their seasonal debuts (after a break of 150 days or longer) and backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit…
Race classification last time out
Nine of the ten winners had contested a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase on their latest outing.
3.35 Haydock 3m1.5f Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap Chase
Horse sex
Only eight mares have run in the past ten years but three of them won (+£10.00)…
…MY SILVER LINING is the sole mare among the five-day entries.
Market position
Nine of the ten winners came from the front three in the betting…
Days since last run
Five winners were making their seasonal return after at least 150 days off the track and backing all 29 qualifiers returned a small profit…
…there were only three qualifiers last year and they filled the first three places (7-1, 16-1 and 10-1). Sam Thomas has a cracking record with chasers returning from a break and his SHOMEN UCHI looks very interesting at this early stage.
Recent form
Last time out winners have a great record, winning five of the last ten renewals from just 15 representatives for a profit of £13.25…
…three of the beaten horses ran second (8-1, 11-2 and 11-2) and another finished third (10-1). KONFUSION, SALADINS SON, DUKE OF DECEPTION, SHOMEN UCHI and TOP OF THE BILL all won last time out.
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