Cheltenham stage their October Showcase meeting this week (Friday/Saturday) and I want to use this week’s article to look at some stats/trends that might help us to find a winner or two…
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Friday, October 24
1.15 William Hill Each Way Handicap Hurdle (2m4f)
Recent form
The last ten winners all arrived at Cheltenham on the back of a top four finish, though backing all 113 qualifiers returned a loss of £4.00 at SP (profit of £25.36 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
Those who finished fifth or worse last time out wee 0-50…
Running style
Early pace has been a key ingredient to finding the winner in recent years and those with a Proform pace rating (arrived at by awarding points for last three runs; led = 4pts, prominent = 2pts, held-up = 0pts) of eight or higher were six from 32 for a profit of £44.50…
2.25 Foundation Developments Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (2m)
Recent form
Last time out hurdle winners have a good recent record…
…landing six of the past ten renewals (from 36 runners) for a profit of £22.91 to a £1 level stake at SP. Splitting those last time out winners by last time out running style makes interesting reading, with those who made the running in their prep race winning four from six (+£44.25)…
3.35 squareintheair.com Handicap Chase (2m)
Last time out running style
Five of the last ten winners made the running on their latest start and backing the 25 qualifiers blind returned a profit of £13.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
4.45 – The Visit Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (3m1f)
Weight rank
Lower weighted runners have fared best in this amateur riders’ handicap chase, with the top seven weights landing this Class 3 contest just once from 78 runners in the past ten years…
…backing them blind returned a loss of £69.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.53).
Jockey claim
Jockeys claiming 3lb or 5lb had a good record…
…landing five of the past ten renewals (from 41 qualifiers) for a profit of £27.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Jockeys who didn’t claim an allowance were three from 68 (-£41.00) while those claiming 7lb were two from 58 (-£33.00).
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Saturday, October 25
1.10 William Hill Each Way Extra Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2m4f)
This race has only been part of the program for four years but in that time backing every runner would have returned a profit…
Three of the four winners had not scored over fences previously.
Running style
Early pace has been very important, with three of the four winners making all…
Pace rating rank
Those who were ranked in the top three in Proform’s pace ratings won all four runnings…
2.20 William Hill Bet Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase (3m1f)
Age
All ten winners were aged between seven and nine and backing all 101 qualifiers returned a small profit at SP (+£3.00)…
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers have shown a profit across the past ten renewals…
Running style
Seven of the ten winners led or faced prominently…
Last time out running style
Predicting which horse is going to lead isn’t always as simple as glanding at a pace map but last time out front-runners fared well…
…landing five of the past ten renewals (from 26 qualifiers) for a profit of £24.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Recent form
Seven of the past ten winners finished in the top three in their prep race…
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