For one last look at some healthy profits during the Christmas break, Andrew Mount has provided his latest Angles column, focusing on the big races on Boxing Day.
This week’s article looks ahead to the main action on Boxing Day (Friday, December 26th)…
Kempton Park
12.45 – “Get Your Ladbrokes Free Kempton Bet” Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
Age
Six-year-olds have dominated in the past ten renewals of this 2m4.5f contest…
…and backing all 47 qualifiers would have found the winner on nine occasions for a profit of £10.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£18.38 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
Previous chase wins
Eight of the ten winners were maidens over fences, though backing all 54 qualifiers returned a small loss at SP…
System
Backing six-year-olds who had yet to win over fences would have found seven winners from 18 bets for a profit of £26.50…
1.20 – Ladbrokes Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Market position last time out
Seven of the past ten winners started as favourite in their prep race, two more were second favourite and one was the third choice in the betting. Those fourth or lower in the betting last time out were 0-12.
Previous chase wins
Maiden chasers were 0-9. Nine winners had won once or twice over fences previously.
Running style
Eight of the ten winners made the running or at least raced prominently…
…front-runners beaten 55.56% of their rivals (PRB, % or rivals beaten, in the table above) but hold-up horses beat just 36.37% of their opponents.
2.30 – Ladbrokes King George VI Chase (Grade 1)
Finishing position last time out
Five of the past ten winners had failed to finish in the first three in their prep race and backing all 21 qualifiers returned a healthy profit…
Trainer nationality
British trainers lead the way over Irish trainers in the past ten winners (7 v 3) but backing the Irish runners returned a profit…
Defeated in close finish last time out
Runners who were beaten in their prep race while running within three lengths of the winner had a poor record…
3.40 – Ladbrokes “Best Odds Guaranteed In Racing” Handicap Hurdle
Age
All winners were aged seven or younger, with four-year-olds doing especially well…
…scoring four times from just 15 runners for a profit of £36.00.
Weight rank
Top weights (including joint top weights) were 0-12…
Running style
Another good race for early pace, with front-runners or prominent racers taking eight of the past ten renewals…
…hold-up horses were just two from 75 for a loss of £64.25 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Recent form
Last time out winners had a good record…
…with six winners from 29 qualifiers for a profit of £11.00. The successful last time out winners were stepping up in grade from Class 3 or Class 4 level, and all had led or raced prominently when scoring the time before. Absolutely Doyen, Believeitanducan and Onewaywest qualify on this angle. That last-named is especially interesting having jumped out to his right when making all in Class 4 company at left-handed Wetherby on his most recent assignment. Ben Pauling’s six-year-old also displayed that trait when scoring by 12 lengths at left-handed Warwick on his penultimate start and looks set to improve for the return to a right-handed venue for the first time since his runner-up effort in a Huntingdon maiden hurdle back in October 2023.
Wetherby
1.35 – William Hill Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase
Age
All of the last ten winners were aged between six and eight, with seven-year-olds having the best record…
…backing all 22 seven-year-olds would have found six winners and returned a profit of £17.33 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Days since last run
All ten winners had raced within the past 30 days and backing all 58 qualifiers returned a tiny profit at SP…
Weight rank
Top weights, including joint top weights, were 0-12…
System
Second or lower in the weights, aged six to eight, raced within the past 30 days…
