This week’s article covers the stats and trends for Cheltenham’s November Meeting (Friday November 14th to Sunday November 16th)…
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Friday
1.10 – 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle
Age
Five-year-olds have a fine recent record, landing eight of the past ten renewals…
…backing all 48 qualifiers returned a profit of £11.08 to a £1 level stale at SP (expected winners = 4.08, A/E = 1.96).
Prep race
All ten winners prepped over hurdles, those that didn’t were 0-39.
2.20 – 3m1f Listed Novices’ Chase
Prep race
Nine of the past ten winners prepped in a Class 1 or 2 contest. Those whose latest run came at a lower level had a poor record…
Running style
Hold-up horses have struggled (0-11). Front-runners won four of the past ten renewals, while prominent racers took the other six.
Previous chase wins
Runners with two or more previous chase wins to their name has form figures of 113P21 (3-6) for a profit of £19.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
3.30 – 2m5f Hyde Novices’ Hurdle
Last-time out winners have landed nine of the past ten renewals and backing all 40 qualifiers returned a profit (mostly thanks to 22-1 winner Minella Missile in 2023)…
Age
Eight of the past ten winners were five-year-olds.
System
Five-year-olds who won last time out were eight from 29 for a profit of £21.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Only IMPERFECTLYPERFECT, 33-1 at the time of writing, and 9-4 favourite HEADS UP qualify this year.
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Saturday
1.10 – 3m1f amateur riders’ handicap chase
Jockey claim
Jockeys claiming the full 7lb allowance have a poor record…
Prep race
Runners who finished in the top two at Cheltenham’s October meeting fared well, with four of the 14 qualifiers scoring (+£5.00)…
2.20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup
Running style
This has not been a good race for hold-up horses, with only two of the last ten winners coming from off the pace…
…backing all 110 qualifiers returned a loss of £86.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Prep race
Runners who prepped at Cheltenham were just one from 40 (-£29.00). Nine of the past ten winners prepped at Aintree (x4), Chepstow (x3) or Wetherby (x2) and backing all 57 qualifiers returned a very healthy profit…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners are 0-39 in the past ten seasons. The expected number of winners (EX Wins in the table below) from this sample was 2.92…
Days since last run
Eight of the past ten winners had raced withing the past five weeks and backing all 98 qualifiers returned a profit…
Days since last run last time out
Seven of those eight winners were having their second run back after a break of at least 150 days and backing all 70 qualifiers returned a profit of £16.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Race class last time out
Those who prepped in Class 3 or lower company were 0-28…
System
Those runners have their second run after a break of 150+ days, who had raced within the past five weeks and who were beaten last time out, were seven from 53 for a profit of £33.00…
…the qualifiers who prepped in Class 1 or 2 company did even better…
Last year’s five qualifiers produced the 10-1 winner, 9-2 runner-up and 16-1 fourth (the other two were 100-1 and 66-1 and both pulled up). This year’s qualifiers are IL RIDOTO (last year’s winner), CONYERS HILLS, HOE JOLY SMOKE, THEATRE NATIVE, ISSAR D’AIRY and MATATA. Thor win the proviso that they must have prepped at Aintree, Chepstow or Wetherby and the score becomes 7-22 for a profit of £64.00…
..only IL RIDOTO qualifies on this angle.
3.30 – 2m5f Intermediate Handicap Hurdle
Market position
The betting market has been a good guide to this Class 3 contest, with favourites (including joint or co-favourites) winning six from1 2 for a profit of £10.48…
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Sunday
3.30 – Greatwood Handicap Hurdle
Last time out form
Last time out winners have underperformed in the Greatwood in recent years with only two winners from 48 runners across the past ten renewals (-£24.00 to a £1 level stake at SP)…
…since 2018 the score is 0-31.
Previous hurdle wins
All ten winners had won between one and three hurdle races in Britain/Ireland previously. Those without such a win were 0-7, while those with four of more wins to their name were 0-30.
Prep race
Seven of the ten winners prepped in a Class 1 contest and backing all 56 qualifiers returned a profit of £12.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
System
Between one and three previous hurdle wins in Britain and Ireland, prepped in a Class 1 race…
…if we eliminate mares and runners aged eight plus the figures improve to…
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