This week’s article looks ahead to Saturday’s action and the stats/trends that should help us to unearth a winner or two at Cheltenham and Doncaster…
1.15 Cheltenham – Quintessentially Mares’ Handicap Chase (2m4.5f)
Recent form
Those that finished first or second in their prep race have a poor record across the nine previous runnings of this mares’ handicap chase…
Race classification last time out
Runners that prepped in another mares-only contest had a modest record…
1.50 Cheltenham – Support The Hunt Family Fund December Gold Cup Handicap Chase (2m4.5f)
Market position
Favourites (including joint favourites) have a poor recent record, with the 12 qualifiers in the past ten renewals failing to notch up a single victory…
Weight rank
The top five in the weights had a poor record…
…with just two winners from 59 runners. The two winners came on good ground (based on race times not the official going). On good to soft or softer going the score was 0-34.
Running style
Early pace has been crucial. Hold-up horses (‘H’ in the table below) were just one from 70 for a loss of £62.50 to a £1 level stake at SP, prominent (‘P’) racers were six from 49 (+£24.50) while front-runners were three from 11 (+£19.00).
It’s not always easy to determine which horses are going to race up with the pace but those ridden patiently the last twice had a poor record…
Handicap or not last time out
…all ten winners prepped in a handicap. Those that didn’t were 0-25.
Days since last run
Nine of the ten winners had raced in the past 28 days and backing all 85 qualifiers returned a profit of £17.00…
System
Fifth or lower in the weights, ran in a handicap last time out, recent run (1-28 days)…
2.05 Doncaster – bet365 Pennine Handicap Chase (3m)
Horse age
All ten winners were aged between seven and nine…
Distance travelled
All ten winners had travelled 125 miles or more from their training base to Doncaster and backing all the qualifiers returned a profit of £21.13…
…the ‘local’ runners (travelled fewer than 125 miles) were 0-33…
System
Aged 7-9 and travelled 125 miles or more…
2.25 Cheltenham – Read Meg Nicholls’ Blog At betmgm.co.uk Handicap Chase (2m0.5f)
Prep race
Six of the past ten winners had prepped at Cheltenham during the same season…
…and backing all 24 qualifiers returned a profit of £49.50.
3.00 Cheltenham – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade 2) (3m)
Horse age
Five-year-olds have a great record, winning eight of the past ten renewals (from 37 runners) for a profit of £13.75…
…the two exceptions were seven-year-old Unowhatimeanharry in 2015 and six-year-old Kilbricken Storm in 2017. Both went on to win the Albert Bartlett itself at the Cheltenham festival, at odds of 11-1 and 33-1 respectively. However, there is only one horse entered aged six plus this year – 50-1 outsider Minella Mission.
Prep race
All ten winners had finished first or second in their prep race.
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers are two from three across the past ten renewals (+£12.00) and French trainers are one from one (+£4.50). However, there are no foreign raiders this year.
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