With Royal Ascot taking centre stage next month (Tuesday 17th – Saturday 21st June) I want to use the next few ‘Andrew’s Angles’ articles to deep dive into the stats that could help us to narrow the fields and make our punting more profitable. Here are a few early observations for some of the non-Group 1/non-juvenile contests on the first two days…
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ASCOT STAKES (2m4f heritage handicap) – 5.00, Tuesday, June 17th
One of the more interesting stats associated with the Ascot Stakes is the solid record of mares. Since 2008, backing all 27 qualifiers would have found five winners for a profit of £26.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 1.82)…
On the trainer front it has paid to side with Willie Mullins in recent years, especially with his runners who prepped over hurdles…
…backing all 16 qualifiers would have found four winners for a profit of £15.00. Three of the beaten horses finished second (7-1, 11-2, 3-1) and another one in third (10-1).
WOLFERTON STAKES (1m2f Listed race) – 5.35 Tuesday, June 17th
The draw is often an underrated factor on the round course at Royal Ascot, and it is usually difficult to win from a very low draw in the Wolferton Stakes with those drawn in one of the three lowest stalls failing to register a win in the 14 renewals since 2011…
The front-runners also tend to migrate towards the inside rail and opposing those likely to be ridden prominently is another angle. Proform’s software awards a pace rating of 0-12 based on the runners’ last three starts and those with a figure of eight or higher are 0-28 since 2011…
COPPER HORSE STAKES (1m6f handicap) – 6.10, Tuesday, June 17th
The 1m6f Copper Horse Stakes is a relatively new race and we only have five years of data to go on.
Draw
Stalls 1, 2 and 3 have a combined record of 0-15.
Weight
Horses carrying 9-10 or more are 0-20.
Last time out finishing position
All previous winners finished in the top six last time out. Those who finished seventh or worse were 0-17.
SP rank last time out
All five winners started in the top four in the betting last time out. Backing all 42 qualifiers returned a profit of £20.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Horse sex
All five wins were geldings (4-56) or colts (1-11).
Age
All winners were aged between four and six. Older horses were 0-21.
System
Backing horses aged between four and six, drawn in stall 4 or higher, who finished in the top six in their prep race when starting in the top four in the betting, carrying 9-09 or less would have found five winners from 19 bets for a profit of £43.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
DUKE OF CAMBRIDGE STAKES (1m Group) – 3.40, Wednesday, June 18th
Draw
Last year, this 1m Group 2 contest for horses aged four and over was transferred from the straight course to the round course so we don’t have a lot to go on as regards the draw. However, stalls 1, 2 and 3 were all beaten (including fancied runners at 100-30 and 4-1) and long term, like the Wolferton Stakes, it may to be avoid those drawn very low.
Prep race
Since 2013, those who prepped in Group 1 company were just one from 16 whereas 11 of the last 12 winners prepped in a Group 2, Group 3 or Listed race. The sole blank year (2022) produced the 40-1 second and 14-1 third from just three qualifiers. On the downside, this angle has thrown up as many as 16 qualifiers in a single year, though a small profit has been achieved by backing them blind at Betfair SP in the study period.
ROYAL HUNT CUP (1m heritage handicap) – 5.00, Wednesday, June 18th
Age
Eight of the last ten winners were aged four and backing all 129 qualifiers blind returned a profit of £31.56 at Betfair SP (after 2% commission). The other winners were five-year-olds. Horses aged six and upwards had a combined record of 0-95.
Horse sex
Colts and gelding recorded five wins apiece, though the colts did so from a much smaller sample and returned a profit at both SP and BSP….
Weight
Runners carrying 9-06 or more were 0-63.
KENSINGTON PALACE STAKES (1m Fillies’ Handicap) – 5.35, Wednesday, June 18th
This will only be the fifth renewal of the 1m handicap for fillies, and it was switched from the round course to the straight course last year, so we don’t have a great deal to go on. However, backing four-year-olds who had raced within the past five weeks would have found all four winners (from 42 bets) for a profit of £49.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
