Today’s column takes a look at the vital trends and stats for the Derby meeting at Epsom on Saturday (I’ll re-visit Royal Ascot next week). I’ve concentrated on the supporting handicap races – you don’t need me to tell you that Aidan O’Brien has a good record in the big race!
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2.45 – 5f Aston Martin “Dash” Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
Stats and trends
Draw
Stall 1 (furthest from the stands’ rail) is regarded as the worst of the draw, but low-drawn runners don’t encounter the traffic trouble that often occurs against the rail, and they can out-run their odds. Backing stall 1 blind in the past ten renewals would have found three winners (33-1, 25-1 and 16-1) as well as placed horse at 16-1 and 17-2.
Horse sex
All ten winners were geldings. Colts, fillies, mares and entire horses had a combined record of 0-24.
SP rank
Favourites and second favourites had a combined record of 0-25 (expected winners = 3.06).
Age
Three-year-olds rarely contest this race and all four who have lined up in the past ten renewals were unplaced.
Jockey claim
The rough nature of this race makes it difficult for apprentice jockeys, with those claiming an allowance just one from 36 for a loss of £29.00.
SP rank LTO
Four of the past ten winners had started as favourite for their prep race. Backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit of £38.00.
Last time out pace
Nine of the past ten winners led (L in the table below) or raced prominently (P) in their prep race. Horses who were held up (H) were just one from 83…
Prep race
Runners who prepped on the all-weather were 0-9, with all finishing out of the frame (i.e. fifth or worse).
5.00 – 1m2f Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Lester Piggott Handicap (Class 2) (3yo 0-100)
Favourites
The SP favourite has failed to register a win in the past ten renewals.
Hose Sex
Eight of the past ten winners were colts, the other two were geldings.
SP rank LTO
This race has thrown up several shocks and horses who started as favourite in their prep race were 0-16 (expected winners = 2.11).
Finishing position LTO
Runners who finished ninth of worse last time out were four from nine for a profit of £69.00…
Draw
Stall 1 is 0-10 in the past ten renewals. Putting stalls 1, 2 and 3 in the Placepot would have seen us safely through to leg two in seven of the past nine years.
Class LTO
Those dropping down from Class 1 level were 0-17. Backing all runners who prepped in a Class 2 race would have found six winners from 30 bets for a profit of £36.00…
System
Colts, drawn in stall 2 or higher, not favourite in prep race, ran in Class 2 or lower company last time out…
…this found eight of the past ten winners (from 41 bets) for a profit of £37.50.
5.40 – 6f JRA Tokyo Trophy Handicap (Class 2) (4yo+ 0-105)
Horse sex
The last ten winners were geldings. The Colts (0-3), fillies (0-4), mares (0-4) and entire horses (0-1) all failed to reach a top-three position.
Weight rank
Top weights (including joint top weights) have fared well, clocking three wins (7-1, 9-2 and 7-2) and three second places (7-1, 6-1 and 4-1) from 12 runners.
Distance travelled
This has not been a good race for locally trained runners, with those trained within 100 miles of Epsom failing to register a win from 56 runners (expected winners = 3.61).
Those who travelled 100+ miles to the track were ten from 86 for a profit of £10.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Prep race
Those who prepped over 5f were just one from 34. Eight winners prepped over 6f, while one had last run over 7f.
Race class LTO
Eight of the winners prepped in Class 2 company, the other pair ran in Class 3. Those whose last race came in Class 4 or lower company were 0-17.
Headgear
Seven of the ten winners wore some form of headgear (blinkers, visor, cheekpieces or tongue-tie). Those who didn’t wear headgear were just three from 75 for a loss of £53.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Days since last run
All ten winners had raced within the past four weeks. Those who had been rested for 29 days or longer were 0-30…
System
Prepped in a Class 2 or 3 contest between one and 28 days ago and travelled 100 miles or more to the track….
…those who wore headgear were seven from 30 for a profit of £43.00.