Andrew Mount’s angles column provides advanced insight dedicated to a single meeting or topic, with stats and trends to point you towards future winners.
This week’s article looks ahead to the action at Ascot on Friday and Saturday…
FRIDAY
12.40 – Howden Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
Age
Five-year-olds have won six of the previous nine runnings of this 2m5.5f contest and backing all 34 qualifiers returned a profit of £22.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£35.34 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
…this angle found the runner-up in the three blank years (2023, 2020 and 2019) and is a good method for getting through to leg 2 of the Placepot. At the four-day stage there were only four five-year-olds declared – El Galactico, Fresh Kicks, Walden and Yellow Star.
Jockey claim
Riders who were unable to claim an allowanced had a modest record…
3.00 – Howden Noel Novices’ Chase (Grade 2)
Age
Five-year-olds have won seven of the past ten renewals from just 12 runners…
…and backing them blind returned a profit of £3.17 to a £1 level stake at SP (+26.38% on turnover). Unfortunately, all seven runners entered at the four-day stage are aged six or seven. We have to go back to 2012 to find the last renewal when five-year-olds were not represented – the year that six-year-old Simonsig won by 49 lengths from the sole other finisher at odds of 2-9.
Prep race
Seven of the last ten winners prepped in a Class 3 company (six won and the other finished second) and backing all 16 qualifiers returned a profit of £3.77…
…Jax Junior, runner-up to Lump Sum at Uttoxeter on his chase debut before bolting up in a Class 3 beginners’ chase from Jeriko Du Reponet at Kempton, is top of my shortlist at this stage.
3.35 – King Edward VII Ascot Membership Open National Hunt Flat Race
Age
The past ten winners were all aged four…
…and backing all 94 qualifiers returned a very small profit at SP (+£0.83) and a much bigger one at Betfair SP (+£52.10 after 2% commission).
Finishing position last time out
Eight winners won their prep race, while the other two had finished second. Racecourse debutants were 0-8 and those who were third or worse on their latest outing were 0-19…
Course last time out
Those runners who prepped in another Ascot bumper were 0-16…
Trainers
David Pipe won this Listed contest in 2024, 2019 and 2018. He has a good record in all Ascot bumper, scoring with eight of his 14 runners…
…and he could run point winner Undulto Rouge. The four-year-old was only third when 13-8 favourite at Hereford on last month’s debut but he looked unsuited by the sharp course and could find this test more to his liking. Pipe’s Ascot bumper runners with prior experience under Rules had form figures of 12141111 (6-8) for a profit of £27.42.
SATURDAY
12.40 – Karen Codd Novices’ Handicap Hurdle
Running style
Five of the past ten winners made all…
Weight rank
All 11 top weights (there were joint top weights in 2023) were beaten…
Days since last run
Nine of the past ten winners had raced within the past 31 days. Backing all 79 qualifiers retuned a loss at SP (-£5.75) but that became a profit of £16.13 at Betfair SP.
SP rank last time out
Runners who started as favourite for their prep race were just one from 27…
…including 0-13 for beaten favourites.
1.15 – Howden Handicap Chase
Age
Young horses have a good record in this 2m3f handicap chase, with those aged between four and six taking five of the nine previous runnings and returning a profit at SP…
They beat 58.41% of their rivals (PRB – percentage of rivals beaten – in the table above) whereas those aged seven or older beat only 42.54% of their rivals and returned a loss of £43.75 at SP, despite four wins…
However, there are only two runners aged six or younger this year – BAD, who often struggles away from Kempton, and Josh The Boss, who seems happiest on left-handed tracks.
Weight rank
Top weights (including joint top weights) were 0-12…
2.25 – Howden Long Walk Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prep race
Those who prepped over a distance of 2m5.5f or shorter have a poor record in the past ten years…
SP rank last time out
Runners who started as favourite for their prep race were 0-18…
3.00 – Howden Silver Cup Handicap Chase
Age
Backing all runners aged six of younger would have found five winners from 23 bets in the past ten years (£6.50 to a £1 level stake at SP)….
Days since last run
Those who had raced within the past 21 days had a good record…
Prep race
Five of the last ten winners prepped at Newbury…
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