Andrew uses his ates column to look at the stats and trends for three races at Cheltenham on Wednesday – the Brown Advisory, Coral Cup and the Grand Annual.
2.00 – Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Age
Eight of the last ten winners were aged seven, the other two were eight-year-olds.
Number of previous chase wins
Topofthegame was a maiden over fences, finishing second in both starts, before taking this race at odds of 4-1 in 2019 but the other 32 runners with one or fewer chase wins to their name failed to score…
Those runners with exactly two previous chase wins had a good record…
2.40 – Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle (Premier Handicap)
Age
Horses aged five or six have generally struggled in the past ten years, winning just once from 97 runners…
Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Five of the last ten Coral Cup winners had won or placed at a previous Cheltenham festival…
…backing all 44 qualifiers returned a profit of £70.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Weight Rank
Blindly backing the top six horses in the weights would have found seven of the past ten winners (from 67 bets) for a profit of £88.50…
Sire Country Of Breeding
French sires have fares poorly in recent years…
…last year’s three qualifiers finished 13th (25-1), 17th (28-1) and 19th (14-1).
Pace Rating
Proform’s database awards each runner a pace rating of between 0 and 12 based on its last three runs (Held up = 0, prominent = 2, led = 4) and most Coral Cup winners were those judged mostly likely to be ridden patiently (i.e. the ones with a low pace rating)…
Prep Race
Those who prepped over a distance of 2m6f or further had a poor record…
…a prep over 2m1f or shorter produced just one winner from 66 bets…
System
Prep ped over 2m4f-2m5.5f and top six in the weights…
Since 2011 (15 renewals) this angle has found eight winners from 42 bets for a huge profit of £141.50 at SP (+£174.42 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
Since 2019, eight of the qualifiers had won or placed at a previous Cheltenham festival, with four of them winning – William Henry (28-1), Commander Of Fleet (50-1), Langer Dan (13-2) and Jimmy Du Seuil (16-1).
4.40 – Debenhams Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Last Time Out Winners
Chosen Mate landed the Grand Annual on the back of a win in 2020 but last time out winners have generally struggled…
Days Since Last Run
Those who raced within the past 29 days had a poor record…
Jockey Claim
Riders claiming an allowance have fared poorly tib the past ten years…
Weight Rank
The top three in the weights did poorly…
…the 15-year score is 0-46.
System
30+ days absence, beaten last time out, fourth or lower in the weights, jockey not claiming an allowance…
…this angle has found nine of the last ten winners, though the number of qualifiers each year has ranged from six to 13.