All-weather tracks can behave differently in the warmer months when the dry/powdery surface produces more kickback, making life even trickier than usual for hold-up horses. Andrew takes a look at the draw and pace angles than can help us to improve our punting on the sand this summer.
Wolverhampton sprint handicaps (5f-6f)
Pace
Since the beginning of 2021 Wolverhampton has staged 793 handicaps over 5f or 6f and splitting the 7272 participants by running style is very revealing…
Front-runners (‘L’ for led in the table above) did exceptionally well, with 162 winners from 854 runner (18.97% strike-rate) for a profit of £383.95 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£628.23 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Those ridden prominently (“P”) had a 13.3% strike-rate for a profit of £207.26 at BSP, while hold-up horses (“H”) were just 265 from 3659 (7.24%) for a huge loss at both SP and BSP.
Taking just the horses who led or raced prominently and ordering them by PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) by month gives the following results…
August (8 in the table above) comes out top ahead of September June, July, May and April, suggesting that the bias to early pace is stronger in the warmer months.
Draw
Splitting the 793 races (7272 runners) by stall position, sorted by PRB, gives the following results…
Those runners who beat the highest percentage of their rivals were drawn in stall 2, followed by stalls 4, 3, 5 and 1, suggesting a low-draw bias.
Potential betting systems
To profit from the above information it seems like all we have to do is to back the likeliest front-runner, but it is not easy to predict which horse is going to make the running. Last time out running style is usually the best guide but it’s not helpful in this case…
…backing horses who led last time out found 119 winners from 1023 bets but returned a loss at SP and BSP. Of those 1023 last time out front-runners in the table above only 299 made the running this time (see below). They produced a profit of £70.87 at SP but the 448 runners who raced prominently returned a loss, as did the 275 last time out pacesetters who were ridden patiently this time…
However, backing the 2955 horses who raced prominently last time out (e.g. “tracked leader(s)”, “chased leader(s)”) returned a profit at BSP so we could be barking up the right tree by using last time out running style as a predictor.
Last time out field size
Next, I looked at field size last time out to see whether last time out front-runners/prominent racers were more likely to race up with the pace if their latest effort came in a big field and the results were promising. The following table shows those whose latest outing came in field of 10+ runners….
…a profit of £353.99 at BSP (+18.15% on turnover after commission) whereas those whose front-running or prominent effort came in a field of nine or fewer runners fared less well…
…with the strike-rate dropping from 12.46% to 11.24%, resulting in a 14.91% loss at BSP.
Conclusion
Throwing the above findings together we can create a system for 5f-6f Wolverhampton handicaps…
Rules
Led or raced prominently in a field of 10 or more runners last time out
Now running in a 5f or 6f Wolverhampton handicap
This gives the following results…
…a small loss at SP (-£46.04 or -2.36% on turnover) but much better at BSP (+£353.99 or 18.15%) and we still haven’t factored in the draw or other factors such as race class. Limiting our bets to those drawn in stall 8 or lower improves the results as follows…
…while adding the proviso that they must be running at the same class level as last time boosts the profits further….
The next two qualifiers both run in the 8.30 race tonight (Tuesday, May 5th) – COLORS OF FREEDOM and LISMACBRYAN HILL.