It’s Sprint Cup day at Haydock on Saturday and Andrew turns his attention to some of the supporting races there and at Kempton, unearthing the stats and systems that might point us in the direction of a winner or two.
1.25 Haydock – Betfair Backs Opinions Superior Mile Stakes (Group 3)
Eight of the last ten winners finished in the top three in their prep race, with last time out winners doing especially well…
Run style
Eight of the ten winners in the study period led (x2) or raced prominently (x6)…
1.55 Haydock – Betfair Celebrates Bow Echo Ascendant Stakes (Listed race)
Prep race
Those who prepped in another Listed contest were only represented eight times in the past ten years and they provided six winners (from just 14 runners)…
Those who prepped at Listed level and who were having their third career start at Haydock were four from five and Marco Botti’s ROCKET BOY fits the bill.
2.20 Kempton – William Hill Sirenia Stakes (Group 3)
Sire country of breeding
Runners representing Australian and US sires have fared well…
Run Style
This is another good race for the pace horses, with eight of the last ten winners making the running or at least racing prominently…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners had a modest record (two from 26), Seven of the ten winners finished second or third in their prep run…
2.30 Haydock – Best Odds On The Betfair Exchange Handicap (Class 2)
Weight rank
Top weights under-performed, while five winners were ranked second in the weights…
Prep race
Twenty runners prepped in the Melrose Handicap at York’s Ebor meeting, with five winning…
2.50 Kempton – William Hill September Stakes (Group 3)
Horse sex
Entires have an incredible recent record, with the sole loser from six runners in the past ten years coming in the only renewal in which two of them were represented…
Run Style
Two winners made all, eight more were prominent and hold-up horses were 0-31…
Market position
Nine of the last ten winners came from the first two in the betting…
3.20 Kempton – William Hill London Mile Series Final (Class 2)
Draw
Stalls 1 to 5 are just one from 50 in the past ten years, while five of the ten winners were drawn 12 or higher…
Age
The last ten winners were aged four or five…
…with the five-year-olds out-performing their odds by some way.
Finishing position last time out
Five of the last ten winners had won their prep race and four others had finished in the frame…
Race distance last time out
Those runners who prepped over 7f-7.5f fared poorly…
System
Four and five-year-olds who prepped over a trip beyond 7.5f won the last ten renewals and returned a profit of £14.75 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Those drawn 6+ who finished in the top four last time out were eight from 27 for a profit of £46.75…
