Tomorrow, September gives way to October and, later this month, the peak jumps season will be upon us with the Dragonbet Welsh Racing Festival at Chepstow (Friday 10th-Sunday 12th) and Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting (Friday 24th – Saturday 25th). One trainer who can be expected to shine at this time of year is Nigel Twiston-Davies and I want to use today’s article to look at his early-season form in detail.
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Month-by-month record (since 2004)…
…the Twiston-Davies yard has shown a profit at SP in August, September and October in the study period as well as January, February and July if we use Betfair SP (after 2% commission). The biggest profit came in October.
October only, by year
…a profit was realised at SP in October by backing NTD’s runners blind in 12 of 21 years in the study period and in 17 of the 21 years at Betfair SP.
October record by race type
…the yard’s Flat runners (all-weather and turf) returned a loss, a did their runners in bumpers (national hunt flat races), while the chasers and hurdles both exceeded market expectations.
Handicaps/non-handicaps
Looking at the yard’s October runners in hurdles/chases only, the split by handicaps/non-handicaps looks like this…
…a good profit in both areas.
Racecourse debutants
…NTD’s October racecourse debutants (hurdles/chases only) returned a profit of £42.94 to a £1 level stake at SP. HAYLLEY’S COMET qualifies on this angle in the 3.50 at Warwick tomorrow (Wednesday, October 1st).
Fresh horses
The October hurdlers/chasers returning from a break of 150 days or longer did extremely well…
…returning a profit of £122.49 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Running style
NTD’s October chasers/hurdles do especially well when making the running (Pace abbreviation = L)…
…landing 79 of their 236 starts (33.47%) for a profit of £137.21 to a £1 level stake at SP. The prominent racers (P) returned a tiny profit (+£9.65 or +1.95%) and the hold-up horses (H) were also in the black (+£42.11 or +9.61%).
Last time out winners
One area where the NTD horses don’t fare so well is last time out winners…
…backing these at SP returned a loss of 18.77% on turnover (-11.24% at Betfair SP).
Summary
Siding with Nigel Twiston-Davies’ hurdlers and chasers in the month of October is usually a profitable angle.
Those making their racecourse debuts or returning from a break of 150 days or longer do especially well.
Front-runners had a fine record, whereas last time out winners returned a loss.
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