Andrew turns his attention to days three and four of this week’s big meeting (Friday 21st and Saturday 22nd August)…
Friday
1.50 Sky Bet Mile Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (3yo, 0-105)
Horse sex
Seven winners were geldings, the other three were colts…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners have fared well in the past ten seasons…
This has been a good Placepot angle, with 13 of the beaten horses finishing second, third or fourth.
Horses who finished second, third or fourth in their prep race performed poorly…
Weight rank
Those ranked in the top three in the weights have a poor record in the past ten renewals, with the sole winner at 5-1 back in 2016…
Draw
Nine of the ten winners were drawn in stall 7 or lower…
Laying stall 8 and above has been a profitable angle…
System
Drawn 7 or lower and fourth or lower in the weights…
There was only one blank year in the last nine (2022) when the five qualifiers included the 16-1 runner-up and 33-1 third.
The geldings fared better then the colts and fillies…
2.25 – Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2)
Age
Since 2014 (12 renewals), backing five and six-year-olds would have returned a profit…
At the time of writing, three of the front four in the market were four-year-olds.
3.00 – AL Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)
US sires have been represented on ten occasions since 2013 and they provided five winners…
…this year’s qualifiers are Carry The Flag, Final Objective and Never Enough
Number of previous runs
Eight of the last ten winners had raced twice or three times in GB/Ire previously and backing all 60 qualifiers blindly returned a profit at Betfair SP…
3.35 – Coolmore City Of Troy Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)
Running style
Don’t look at the Nunthorpe and think “it’s packed full of early pace, the race will be set up for a closer” as those ridden patiently are 0-71 in the past ten years…
Age
Two-year-olds are 0-7 in the past ten years, while three-year-olds were just one from 38…
Draw
Nine of the last ten winners were drawn in stall 8 or lower…
Horse sex
Colts are just one from 36 in the past ten renewals and entire horses zero from seven…
Speed ratings
Eight of the ten winners were ranked in the top four in Proform’s career speed ratings…
Backing all 43 qualifiers returned a profit of £63.75 at SP. Those drawn in stall 8 or lower were seven from 26…
4.10 – 1m4f Assured Data Protection Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (3yo+)
Age
All ten winners in the study period were aged four or five…
Days since last run
Those who had raced within the past 21 days fared poorly…
Finishing position last time out
Previous career wins
Seven of the ten winners had just one or two previous victories to their name…
…and backing all 40 qualifiers returned a profit of £63.50 at SP.
4.45 – British Stallion Studs EBF Convivial Maiden Stakes (Class 2)
Prep race
Runners who prepped at Ascot are four from six in the past ten years…
All 15 runners who prepped at Goodwood were beaten.
5.20 – Sky Bet EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2) (3yo+)
Draw
There has only been six runnings of this race and all were won by stalls 1, 2 or 3…
Saturday
1.50 – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes
Days since last run
Runners absent for more than five weeks are 0-21 in the past 11 years (expected winners = 3.46)…
Hankelow (6-1) falls down on this stat as do several others at bigger prices.
Recent form
Ten of the last 11 winners finished in the top three in their prep race…
…those who raced within the past five weeks were ten from 39…
The sole blank year was in 2019 when there was only one qualifier (5th, 8-1) whereas there were between three and five qualifiers in all the other years.
2.25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Days since last run
Those runners who were returning from a break of five weeks or longer were just one from 54 in the past 11 years…
Running style
Eight of the past 11 winners came from off the pace (H = held up). The other three were prominent (P) throughout while front-runners (L = led) were 0-12.
Proform’s software awards a pace rating on a scale of one to 12 based on the last three runs (led = 4pts, P = 2pts, held up = 0pt) and eight of the past ten winners had a pace rating of four or lower…
System
Backing those with a Proform pace rating of between zero and four (i.e. likely to be ridden patiently), who last raced between one and 34 days ago were eight from 76 in the past 11 years for a profit of £22.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£49.51 at Betfair SP)…
Only four of the 70 qualifiers were making their handicap debuts and two won (10-1 and 9-2) with the others running second (3-1) and tenth (66-1).
3.35 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Trainer nationality
Irish-trained runners finished 1-2-3 last year and backing them blind over the past ten years returned a profit of £17.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Recent form
The last ten winners all finished in the top six in their prep race. Those that didn’t were 0-54…
4.10 – Sky Bet Constantine Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Overview
Only four previous runnings, so very little to go on.
Prep race
All five winners (dead-heat winners in 2023) prepped in another 6f Class 2 handicap, though backing all 49 qualifiers returned a loss at SP…
Omitting those qualifiers who ran at Goodwood last time out improved matters…
4.45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed Race) (2yo)
Finishing position last time out
2020 scorer Acklam Express won his prep race in a COVID-affected year but all other last-time out winners since 2015 were beaten last time out…
5.20 – Sky Bet Dav Reid Finale Handicap (Heritage Handicap) (Class 2)
Ten of the last 11 winners of this1m2f handicap had travelled more than 150 miles from their training base and backing all 69 qualifiers returned a profit of £22.83 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Those trained closer to York (150 miles or less) were just one from 97…
