There’s some fantastic action on the Flat at Newmarket and York this coming Saturday (October 11th) and I want to use today’s angles column to take a closer look at the trends for some of the big races…
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1.30 York – 6f Coral Rockingham Stakes (Listed Race)
Experience counts in the Rockingham Stakes and those who had raced just once or twice previous were 0-23…
1.50 Newmarket – Night Of Thunder Zetland Stakes (Group 3)
I couldn’t find any strong angles for this 1m2f Group 3 contest, but I did notice that runners who prepped at Naas had a good record…
…with three of the four qualifiers in the past ten years winning (the other was second). The Aidan O’Brien-trained PORT FERDINAND is the sole qualifier this year, but I’ll be waiting until the final declarations as his trainer is mob-handed and he’s not a certain runner.
2.25 Newmarket – Emirates Autumn Stakes (Group 3)
Foaling dates have been a useful guide to this Group contest for two-year-olds…
…with the later foals (April and May) scoring well on the PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) metric. The combined record of the April/May foals looks like this…
However, the more obvious angle with this race is the record of Godolphin-owned runners…
…with seven of the last ten winners wearing the blue colours (five were trained by Charlie Appleby, the other pair by Saeed Bin Suroor). This year, Appleby has AL ZANATI and PACIFIC AVENUE, while The Gosden’s send out ARCHER ROYAL.
3.00 Newmarket – Darley Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
The last ten winners of the Dewhurst prepped in Group 1 (x7) or Group 2 (x3) company, with those whose last run came in Group 3 or lower company failing to register a single success…
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3.15 York – 6f Coral Sprint Trophy (Heritage Handicap)
Horse sex
The last ten winners were all geldings. Colts, fillies, entire horse and mares had a combined record of 0-17.
Weight
Top weights (including joint top weights) were 0-12 with only one placing.
Prep race
Seven of the past ten winners had prepped at Ayr exactly three weeks earlier. Backing all 84 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £5.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£31.15 at Betfair SP). Those whose Ayr run came in the Silver Cup were just one from 18 (-£10.00 at SP) – 2015 winner Shared Equity – while those whose latest assignment came in the Ayr Gold Cup were six from 64 (+£17.00 at SP)…
Draw
The draw has had a huge impact on the outcome of this 6f heritage handicap, with nine of the past ten winners drawn in stall 8 or lower…
…lumping those drawn 8 or lower together would have found nine winners from 80 bets for a profit of £33.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
System
Those drawn in stall 8 or lower who prepped at Ayr were seven from 34 for a profit of £55.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…the low-drawn runners who ran in the Ayr Gold Cup last time were six from 26 (also for a profit of £55.00). This angle has found six of the last seven winners.
3.40 Newmarket – Godolphin Cesarewitch Stakes (Heritage Handicap)
Weight
In the past ten years those towards the head of the handicap have mostly struggled. Backing all runners ranked in the top ten in the weights would have found just one winner from 105 bets…
Running style
In the past ten years, eight Cesarewitch winners had been ridden patiently in their prep race…
System
Backing those ranked 11th or lower in the weights who were ridden patiently last time out would have hit seven of the past ten winners…
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