Newbury’s season finale takes place on Saturday (March 21st) and Andrew takes a detailed look at the stats/trends could will help us to identify a winner or two.
1.15 – John Haine Memorial Novices’ Hurdle (2m)
Running style
Hold-up horses (H) have struggled (0-42) in the nine-year study period. Three winners made all (L) and six more were prominent (P) throughout..
Previous career wins
Maidens (both codes) had a poor record…
Previous hurdle wins
Those who had won at least once over hurdles had a good record…
…winning seven times from just 17 runners for a profit of £4.20 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who led or raced prominently were seven from 12.
2.25 – BetVictor Home Of The Saturday Superboost Handicap Chase (2m4f)
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners landed four of the past nine renewals for a profit of £3.50…
Prep race
Runners who prepped in the Greatwood Handicap Chase over the same course and distance, finishing in the top three, had form figures of 1221413 (3-7). HELTENHAM won that Class 1 Premier Handicap Chase on February 28th and the runner-up/third are not entered on Saturday.
3.00 – BetVictor British EBF ‘NH’ Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Limited Handicap) (Grade 2)
Days since last run
Those runners who had raced within the past 28 days were just one from 47…
Only 16 runners had been rested for 70 days or longer and four of them won for a profit of £49.00…
Race class last time out
Runners who prepped in another Class 1 contest had a poor record…
…failing to score from 17 attempts across the nine-year study period. Seven winners were stepping up from Class 4 level and backigm them blind retuned a profit of £2.75.
Previous hurdle wins
Maidens were just one from 30.
Bumper wins
Those who had won at least one national hunt flat race had a poor record…
…whereas those who never won a bumper showed a profit…
At the time of writing the market was dominated by horses who had previous won a bumper – GETAWHISKY (4-1), STRING RUN (4-1) and CHARISMA CAT (5-1).
System
Rested for more than four weeks and prepped in a Clas 3 or 4 contest. This system found eight winners form 69 bets for a profit of £20.25…
Those qualifiers who had never won a bumper were seven from 45 (+£36.25)…
3.35 – Goffs Hundred Grand Bumper (Class 2)
SP rank last time out
Two of the six winners were newcomers, though backing all 53 qualifiers returned a loss of £37.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The other four winners started as favourite in their prep race and backing the seven qualifiers returned a profit of £7.83…
…current market leader DIAMOND STREET was sent off as the 5-2 favourite when scoring by ten lengths on his debut at Doncaster in late January.