With Royal Ascot on the horizon (Tuesday 16th – Saturday 20th June) I want to use the next few ‘Andrew’s Angles’ articles to deep dive into the stats that could help us to narrow the fields and make our punting more profitable. Here are some early observations for the opening day…
2.30 – Queen Anne Stakes (Group 1)
Running style
Ascot’s straight mile is associated with patient running tactics but only three of the last ten winners came from off the pace (‘H’ for held up in the table below). That said, front-runners (‘L’ for led) fared poorly (0-13), while horses described as prominent (‘P’) won on seven occasions…
Prep race
Six of the past ten winners prepped in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes at Newbury and backing all 49 qualifiers returned a profit of £8.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. Lockinge winners actually returned a loss (-£4.45) while those who finished sixth or worse were two from 18 (+£31.00), with two of the beaten horses finishing second (20-1 and 12-1) and another running third at 14-1. The two winners – 33-1 chance Accidental Agent in 2018 and 14-1 shot Lord Glitters the following year – had both been poorly drawn in stall 11 at Newbury when the winner was drawn low.
Conclusion
This year’s Lockinge winner NOTABLE SPEECH heads the ante-post betting at around the 7-4 and while he’s improved since his hard-pulling fourth to DOCKLANDS in this race 12 months ago, those odds look skinny enough, especially as he disappointed in his only other course start, finishing seventh of eight (6-4f) in the 2024 Sta James’s Palace Stakes. OPERA BALLO was gifted an easy lead when scoring at Sandown and his six wins since landing his maiden have come in fields of seven or fewer runners. He’ll struggle to dominate in this company if front-running is again the plan. Lockinge runner-up MORE THUNDER, narrowly denied in last season’s Wokingham, will find this track more to his liking and has obvious each-way claims while course expert Docklands, whose full record here reads, 11322214 (3-8), will again be difficult to kick out of the frame.
3.05 – Coventry Stakes (Group 2)
Running style
It has not been easy to make the running in the Coventry stakes in recent years, with pacesetters failing to record a win from 16 qualifiers. Horses who made the running in their prep race were just one from 44 and that was 15-8 favourite Arizona in 2019.
5.00 – Ascot Stakes (Class 2 handicap)
Previous Flat wins (turf)
Those who had yet to win a Flat turf race in Britain or Ireland were 0-24 in the past ten years…
…since 2008 the score is 0-33. Those who had won just once in this sphere also fared poorly…
…as did those with two wins…
59 runners had won five times or more on the Flat (turf) only and all were beaten. The sweet spot is three or four previous wins, an angle which has found 16 of the 18 winners since 2008 and returned a huge profit of £134.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£225.89 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
Horse sex
One of the more interesting stats associated with the Ascot Stakes is the solid record of mares. Since 2008, backing all 28 qualifiers would have found five winners for a profit of £25.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 1.83)…
5.35 – Wolferton Stakes (Listed Race)
Draw
The draw is often an underrated factor on the round course at Royal Ascot, and it is usually difficult to win from a very low draw in the Wolferton Stakes with those drawn in one of the three lowest stalls failing to register a win in the 15 renewals since 2011…
Running style
Twelve of the last 15 winners were ridden patiently, three were prominent throughout while front-runners were 0-18…
Trainer
The Gosden yard has won this five times in the 15-year study period from 19 runners. Backing them blindly returned a profit of £13.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.01, A/E = 2.49). They also saddled a trio of third places (33-1, 14-1 and 7-2). Gosden runners drawn in stall 4 or higher were five from 12…
Prep race
Those who prepped in a Group 2 or 3 contest returned a good profit in the past ten years…
6.10 – Copper Horse Stakes (Class 2 handicap)
Overview
The 1m6f Copper Horse Stakes is a relatively new race and we only have six years of data to go on.
Draw
Stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 have a combined record of 0-24…
Weight
Horses carrying 9-10 or more are 0-22…
Age
Horses aged seven and upwards have struggled…
Last time out finishing position
All previous winners finished in the top six last time out. Those who finished seventh or worse were 0-23.
SP rank last time out
All six winners started in the top four in the betting last time out. Backing all 52 qualifiers returned a profit of £13.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Horse sex
All six winners were geldings (4-68, -£40.00) or colts (2-13, +£24.50).
System
Backing horses aged between four and six, drawn in stall 5 or higher, who finished in the top six in their prep race when starting in the top four in the betting, and carrying 9-09 or less would have found six winners from 26 bets for a profit of £41.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
