Andrew has already taken an in-depth look for the Ultima Handicap Chase on day one of the 2026 festival and in today’s article he covers two of the other Tuesday handicaps – the Fred Winter and the Plate.
2.40 – Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Finishing position last time out
Generally, there are two types of Fred Winter winner – those who arrived at Cheltenham having finished fourth or worse last time out, often under a patient ride in a Graded contest, and those who won in Class 4 or lower company, needing to show their hand to ensure that they got into the race.
Regular readers of my ramblings will be aware of my stats regarding runners who finished second or third in their prep race (GB and IRE preps only as my database doesn’t cover French form) – they have a poor record since the Fred Winter’s inception, even after 17-2 shot Puturhandstogether took the honours last year…
…laying these at Betfair SP returned a profit of £144.34 after 2% commission (+82.48% on turnover).
Trainer nationality
Eight of the last ten winners were trained in Ireland and backing all 93 qualifiers returned a profit of £84.50…
Prep race
Six of the past ten winners prepped in a ‘rated’ race in Ireland (four at Naas, one at Navan and one at Fairyhouse). Backing all 22 qualifiers returned a profit of £70.50…
The Naas race took place on Saturday February 7th and was won by HIGHLAND CRYSTAL from obvious eyecatcher SARATOGA. The other runners were MUNSIF, KILMEADEN and GENEALOGY.
Speed ratings
Speed figures have not been the best guide to this race. Backing those with one of the top nine Proform ratings (when assessing all ratings in the past 12 months) would have found just one of the last ten winners…
Days since last run
Since the inaugural running in 2005, backing all runners who had raced within the past five weeks would have found 16 winners from 240 bets for a profit of £62.00…
…backing only those who won last time out found nine winners from 65 bets for a profit of £63.50…
Early thoughts
The two eyecatchers from that Naas rated hurdle – SARATOGA and MUNSIF – have the ‘finished 2nd or 3rd last time out’ stat to overcome but both enter calculations (priced at 5-1 and 14-1 respectively). Flying Tiger won this for the Nick Williams yard in 2017 (who also saddled the 33-1 fifth in the same year) and his son Chester could be represented by Grade 2 Finale Juvenile Hurdle winner TENTER LE TOUT, sixth to Maestro Conti at Cheltenham on Trials Day. His rookie trainer has made a fine start to his career (seven winners from 23 runners for a profit of £15.63 to a £1 level stake at SP) and a mark of 123 looks fair.
4.40 – Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase
Finishing position last time out
Backing runners that finished second, third, fourth, fifth or sixth last time out has been a route to the poor house, with just one winner from 164 bets across the past 15 renewals for a loss of £149.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…the expected number of winners (judged by their Starting Prices) was 7.46.
In the same 15-year study period, last time out winners showed a profit of £31.08 thanks to eight winners from 59 bets…
Running style
Four winners made all (+£20.25), seven winners were prominent throughout (+£68.33) while hold-up horses were just four from 222 (-£173.00)…
Those runners with a Proform pace rating of zero (i.e. ridden patiently in their last three starts) were 0-59…
However, and it’s a big however, this race has been transferred from Thursday (New Course) to Tuesday (Old Course) and the bias to prominent types is not certain to be repeated.
Prep race
13 of the 15 winners prepped over 2m3.5f-2m5f…
Early thoughts
MADARA heads the early betting at around the 7-1 mark, and he looks very interesting having finished a 16-1 fourth of 15 over course and distance in last season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup on his debut for Dan Skelton. He was given an easy time of things after a year off when fifth of six over an inadequate 1m7f trip at Wetherby on his reappearance just after Christmas and his patient running style was no help when runner-up over 2m4.5f at Kempton next time. DONNACHA, tipped in my column at 12-1 and on Weekend Watch (20-1), scored narrowly from Jagwar on the New Course here on Trials Day, and a 4lb rise could be in the generous side. Soft or heavy ground could see him further enhance the fine recent record of last time out winners. Dan Skelton’s RISKINTHEGROUND has lost all 16 starts in the peak winter months (November to February) but has won eight of his 18 starts between March and October for a profit of £21.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. He got stuck in the mud behind Haiti Couleurs at Newbury on February 7th and could go well if the ground dries out to good to soft or faster.