Andrew uses his latest column to take an in-depth look at the stats and trends that matter for day two of Royal Ascot (Wednesday, June 17th).
2.30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group 2)
Horse country of breeding
British bred runners are just one from 78 in the past ten years…
Running style
Early pace is a key ingredient when it comes to winning the Queen Mary and runners ridden patiently were zero from 102 in the ten-year study period…
Foaling month
April foals have a good recent record in the Queen Mary, landing six of the seven renewals since 2019…
…and backing all 46 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Stripping out those who were ridden patiently in their prep race (assuming they’d had one) improved the figures to six from 33.
3.05 – Queen’s Vase (Group 2)
Market position last time out
Seven of the last ten winners, including the last six, started as SP favourite (or joint/co favourite) in their prep race…
Running style last time out
In the past ten years, 51 horses were ridden patiently in their prep race and all lost…
Draw
The distance of the Queen’s Vase was reduced from 2m to 1m6f in 2017 and the first bend arrives very quickly, making life tricky for those drawn high. Stalls 10 or higher are 0-29 since the distance change…
The brilliant Stradivarius won from stall 9 in 2017 but the subsequent runners from that stall all finished fifth or worse. Gregory justified even-money favouritism from stall 8 in 2024 but the other eight runners from that draw were all beaten. Six of the nine winners were drawn between stalls 3 and 6.
3.40 – Duke Of Cambridge Stakes (Group 2)
Draw
We’ve only had two renewals of this 1m Group 2 contest since it was transferred from the straight to the round course, but the early signs are that very low draws are best avoided, with stalls 1, 2, 3 and 4 recording form figures of 52494265 (0-8)…
4.20 – Prince Of Wales’s Stakes (Group 1)
Age
The last ten winners were aged four or five and backing all 59 qualifiers in this age range returned a profit at SP…
…though only one of the entries falls outside of this age range, 150-1 shot Royal Rhyme.
5.00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Weight
Those carrying 9st 6lb or more have struggled in the past ten years…
…going back to 2010, the score is 0-94.
Recent form
Five of the last ten runners won their prep race, though backing all 55 qualifiers retuned a loss of £7.00 at SP.
Market position last time out
Six of the last ten winners, including five of the last six, started as favourite in their prep race and backing all 57 qualifiers returned a profit of £15.00…
Last time out winning favourites were four from 19 for a profit of £21.50.
Distance last time out
Runners dropping in trip from 1m1f/1m2f returned a profit of £33.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Age
Eight winners were aged four and the other pair were five-year-olds. Those aged six and older are 0-89 in the past ten renewals…
Horse sex
Colts won six of the ten renewals (from just 35 runners) for a profit of £41.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
System
Colts who carried 9st 5lb or less were six from 28 for a profit of £48.00…
…those who finished in the top three last time out were six from 17 (+£59.00).
5.35 – Kensington Palace Stakes (Class 2 handicap)
Overview
This will only be the sixth running of this 1m handicap for fillies, and it was switched from the round course to the straight course last 2024, so we don’t have a great deal to go on.
Days since last run
All five winners had raced within the past month (31 days or less)…
Those rested for longer than 31 days were 0-40…
Age
All five previous winners were four-year-olds…
Sire country of breeding
All five winners were representing Irish sires and backing all 53 qualifiers returned a profit…
System
Four-year-olds rested for 31 days or less since their prep race and representing Irish sires were five from 26 for a profit of £77.00…
