In the final part of his Royal Ascot stats/trends pieces Andrew looks ahead to the cards on Friday and Saturday…
Friday
2.30 – Albany Stakes (Group 3)
Foaling month
In the past ten years, Albany runners who were foaled in January showed a profit and their PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) figure was higher than for February foals, who in turn had a higher figure than March foals, who had a higher PRB than April foals etc….
January foals weren’t represented in 2025 or in 2024, but they won in four of the last six runners that were.
Prep race
Those who were beaten on their latest start in Britain/Ireland (I don’t have runs for other countries in my database) had a poor record…
Speed figures
Proform’s speed ratings have provided a useful guide to the Albany and simply backing last time out winners who were in the top three in their last-time out speed rankings would have found six winners from 24 bets in the past ten renewals to feature a qualifier (there were no qualifiers in 2019)for a profit of £9.38 at SP…
This angle would have seen us safely negotiate the Placepot in three of the four blank years (16-1 2nd, 10-1 3rd, 2-1 2nd) with the exception in COVID-affected 2020.
Splitting those 24 runners by foaling month gives the following results…
…with the earlier foals doing better.
5.00 – Sandringham Stakes (Class 2 Fillies’ Handicap)
Running style last time out
Those who made the running in their prep race have a poor record since 2015…
Eight of the 11 winners were ridden patiently (‘H’ for held-up) in the study period, with the other three racing prominently…
Pace rating
Each winner is given a Proform pace rating between 0 and 12 based on the aggregate score from their last three runs (held-up = 0pts, prominent = 2pts, led = 4pts) and the lower the rating the better the PRB (% of rivals beaten)…
Saturday
4.20 – Jersey Stakes (Group 3)
Prep race
This 7f Group 3 contest often goes to a runner who was stepping back in trip after contesting an English or Irish Guineas, with nine such winners from 56 bets since 2009 for a profit of £48.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
In the same period, runner who prepped in handicap company fared poorly…
It is also rare for a Jersey winner to have prepped over this specialist 7f trip, with just two winners from 188 runners since 2009…
5.35 – Golden Gates Stakes (Class 2)
Draw
The ‘Gareth Gates’ as no-one is calling it I sonly in its seventh year but, like with the other middle-distance races at Ascot, a low draw has proved troublesome. Those drawn in stalls 1, 2 and 3 were 0-18 with all of them finishing outside of the first three…
Horse sex
All six winners were colts…
System
Backing colts drawn in stall 4 or above found all six winners from 47 bets and made a profit of £22.25…
