Andrew uses this week’s column to look ahead to Royal Ascot and the key stats and trends for Thursday (June 18th)…
3.05 – King George V Stakes (Class 2 Handicap)
Draw
Since the draw was reversed in 2011 stalls 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 have combined record of just one winner from 75 runners…
…the expected number of wins was 3.06 (A/E = 0.33). The sole winner was the well handicapped Hukum who took this off a mark of 90 in 2020 before ending his career as a Group 1 winner rated 122.
Market position last time out
Nine of the last ten winners started as favourite in their prep race. The exception came in COVID-affected 2020…
…backing all 63 qualifiers returned a profit of £29.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Splitting those 63 runners by last time out race class makes interesting reading, with eight of the nine winners prepping in Class 2, 3 or 4 company…
System
Those runners drawn in stall 6 or higher who started as favourite for their prep race were nine from 47 for a profit of £45.50…
…those who prepped in Class 2, 3 or 4 company were eight from 32 for a profit of £55.50…
3.40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group 2)
Trainers
Backing only runners trained by the powerful Gosden and Aidan O’Brien yards would have hit nine of the last ten winners…
…the exception came in 2022 when sole qualifier, History, ran third at 13-2. This angle hit the 1-2-4 last year (7-1, 40-1 and 14-1), very nearly copping a huge trifecta return.
4.50 – Britannia Stakes (Class 2 Handicap)
Race class last time out
Eight of the last ten winners were stepping up from Class 4 or 5 level…
Running style
Eight of the last ten winners were ridden patiently (H for held-up in the table below)…
…front-runners (L for led) and prominent racers (P) recorded just one win apiece.
Finishing position last time out
…nine of the ten winners had won or finished second in their prep race.
System
Backing those who prepped in Class 4 or lower company, running first or second, would have found eight winners from ten bets in the study period for a profit of £24.00…
5.35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group 3)
Draw
Like with most races on the round course at Royal Ascot the angle with the 1m2f Hampton Court Stakes is to avoid those drawn very low. Since the draw was reversed in 2011, the ten renewals featuring ten or more runners have seen stalls 1, 2, and 3 struggle…
Prep race
Since 2011, only 16 horses lined up here having contested a Group race over 1m4f or further last time out and four won for a profit of £24.50…
…with four of the beaten horses placing (5-1-, 9-1, 10-1 and 10-1). Those drawn in stall 4 were four from ten (+£30.50).
6.10 – Buckingham Palace Stakes (Class 2 Handicap)
Draw
After a break from 2015-2019 this race was re-instated to the Royal meeting in 2020. Since 2011 (ten renewals) those drawn between stalls 6 and 19 have a poor record…
…with just one winner from 140 qualifiers – Eton Forever back in 2012. The figures for stalls 1 to 5 weren’t great either though at least the PRB (% of rivals beaten) figure was higher (40.86% compared to 29.37%) than for the middle draws…
…the draw sweet spot was stall 20 and higher which provide eight of the ten winners (from 75 bets) for a profit of £92.33…
…last year, this angle hit the 1-2-3-4-5-6 from eight qualifiers.
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