Andrew takes an early look at the Ryanair Chase, running through the vital facts and stats and giving his thoughts on the best ante-post selections for the Thursday chasing highlight.
Stats and trends
Age
The past ten Ryanair winners were aged between seven and nine. Six-year-olds were 0-6 and horses aged ten or older were 0-17…
Trainer nationality
Eight of the ten winners were trained in Ireland, though backing all 49 qualifiers returned a loss at both SP and Betfair SP…
Sire Country of Breeding
Seven of the best ten winners were representing French sires…
…backing all 27 qualifiers returned a profit of £7.32 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.26, A/E = 1.64). This angle found big-priced placed horses in two of the three blank years, with 18-1 shot Heart Wood finishing second last year and 16-1 chance Saint Calvados filling the same position in 2020. The only time this angle failed to get punters through to the next leg of the Placepot was in 2023 when sole qualifier Blue Lord finished eight (11-2).
Market Position
All ten winners were in the front four in the market. Five of the ten winners were clear favourite and backing all the qualifiers returned a profit of £2.82 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Running Style
Three winners made all and five more were prominent throughout. Hold-up horses were just two from 50…
Running Style Last Time Out
Backing horses who made the running last time out (“L” for led in the table below) would have found five winners from 22 bets for a profit of £7.57…
Previous Cheltenham Festival Experience
All ten winners had raced at the Cheltenham festival before, though backing all 84 qualifiers returned a loss…
…five of those had won at a previous Cheltenham festival though backing all 30 qualifiers returned a loss of £13.68 to a £1 level stake at SP.
System
Backing runners aged 7-9 who made the running in their prep race and had run at the festival before would have found five winners from 13 bets for a profit of £16.57. Those who were Frenchbred had form figures of P114111 (5-7) for a profit of £22.57.
The key contenders
Last year’s nine-length winner FACT TO FILE heads the antepost market at around the 2-1 mark. Willie Mullins’ nine-year-old has been beaten at odds of 11-10f, 11-8f and 3-1in his three subsequent outings though also won at the festival in 2024 and was second in the 2023 Champion Bumper. His King George sixth was a little underwhelming but all roads lead to the Ryanair and he’s difficult to oppose.
GAELIC WARRIOR’s last four runs beyond 2m have produced form figures of 1113 (3-4), with the defeat by a short head in the King George. He missed last year’s festival but bolted up in the 2024 Arkle and was runner-up here in 2023 (Ballymore) and in 2022 (Fred Winter). He’s entered in the Gold Cup too, so is difficult to support antepost.
JANGO BAIE would hold obvious claims if running here instead of in the Gold Cup, but the longer race looks more likely at this stage.
HEART WOOD chased home Fact To File in this race last year and Henry De Bromhead’s eight-year-old impressed when taking the New Year’s Day Chase at Tramore However, form figures in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company of 3242P4 (0-6) suggest that a place might be the best he can hope for. When racing at a lower level his record for his current handler stands at 2221111 (4-7).
BANBRIDGE, just touched off in the King George when fitted with a first-time visor, failed to stay the trip when well beaten in last season ‘s Cheltenham Gold Cup and was beaten miles when starting at 4-1 for the 2024 Ryanair. The ground was slower than ideal that day and he’d have a squeak if it was genuinely good, though that’s scenario is unlikely given Cheltenham’s aggressive watering policy. This is his record judged by Proform’s ‘actual going’ description…
Betfair Chase winner GREY DAWNING is likely to head to the Gold Cup though would be of obvious interest if diverted here.
JONBON’s record over 2m4f or further reads 111 (3-3) if we count his sole point-to-point outing. He’s been wonderfully consistent over the years, but his lowest PRB (percentage of rivals beaten) score is at Cheltenham (see table below) and his tendency to make at least one serious jumping error per course outing is an obvious concern. He’s unbeaten on flat tracks and Aintree is likely to be his main target.
GIDLEIGH PARK has form figures below 3m of 1111P122 (5-8), with the non-completion on account of a physical issue (irregular heartbeat). The two runner-up efforts came behind top class rivals Impaire Et Passe (beaten by a length and a quarter) and Jango Baie (beaten by nine lengths). He makes some appeal at a big price though drops in trip for the Clarence House Chase at Ascot on January 17th and could take the Champion Chase route.
After MATATA slammed Il Ridoto in handicap company over course and distance on New Years’ Day co-trainer Willy Twiston-Davies, quoted in the Racing Post, said his eight-year-old was “crying out for this trip” which begs the question “if that’s the case why the bloody hell did you run him 2m-2m1f in 19 of his previous 20 starts since his 3m point win?” He finished second in his only other start on Cheltenham’s New Course, and his prominent running style could help him to a top four finish if tackling this race.
Conclusion
The claims of last year’s winner FACT TO FILE are hard to fault and the current 2-1 with Ladbrokes/Coral is a shade bigger than the exchange price. The next three in the betting – Jango Baie (Gold Cup), Gaelic Warrior (Gold Cup) and Majborough (Champion Chase) – are likely to miss the race, and he could be an even-money shot on the day. Last year’s runner-up HEART WOOD is probably the one for the forecast again and an each-way antepost bet at 12-1 could leave us in a good position if the field cuts up to seven or fewer runners or of anything happens to the favourite between now and March. Gidleigh Park and Matata have minor place prospects.
#AD 18+ New cust: Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports Bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on eSports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply.