The British weather has taken a turn for the worse in the past few days (as it usually does when hosepipe bans are introduced) and we saw thunderstorms turn the ground soft at Windsor on Monday night and Beverley raced on officially heavy going. Windsor’s muddy track produced some bookmaker friendly results (33-1 and 14-1 twice). Several other meetings this week are likely to feature the word ‘soft’ in the going description – Catterick (Wednesday) is currently soft with rain forecast, while Doncaster on the same day is described as ‘soft, heavy in places’. Yarmouth (Thursday) is ‘soft’ and York (Friday/Saturday) is currently ‘good to soft, soft in places’.
The formbook is the obvious route to finding soft-ground horses when it comes to exposed handicappers who have been around for years but breeding angles come to the fore in maiden/novice contests and it’s those I want to discuss in today’s article…
SIXTIES ICON
Sixties Icon raced mostly on good or faster going but his progeny have a fine record on the Flat on soft or heavy going (based on Proform’s going adjustment, not the official verdict)…
…50 winners from 308 bets (16.23% strike-rate) and a profit of £47.71 at SP. At Betfair SP (after 2% commission) the profit is boosted to £105.66 and at EP (evening price the night before racing with bet365) the figure was £239.29.
The Paul Midgley-trained TIRIAC, a dual winner on officially heavy going, wasn’t best drawn when mid-division on good ground at Haydock on his latest start and could go well in the 6.50 at Doncaster tomorrow (Wednesday).
CRACKSMAN
Backing progeny of Cracksman on ground rated good to soft or softer by Proform produced the following results…
…a profit at SP, Betfair SP and EP. On soft or heavy going only the results were as follows…
LAHINA BAY looks set to encounter these conditions in the 4.15 at Lingfield today (Tuesday).
FAST COMPANY
Progeny of Fast Company have a healthy strike-rate on soft or heavy going on the Flat in Britain/Ireland…
…producing a big profit at evening price and also at Betfair SP.
NIGHT OF THUNDER
Supporting Night Of Thunder’s progeny on going rated as good to soft or softer by Proform returned the following figures…
…GREATEST DRAMA (Naas 6.40 Wednesday) and SWISS LIGHTNING (Leicester 7.33 Wednesday) are the latest qualifiers.
TERRITORIES
Progeny of Territories show a level stakes loss at SP and Betfair SP on good to soft or softer going in Flat/turf races…
…but that becomes a profit of £75.94 at bet365 prices at 8.30pm the evening before racing (EP). Those running over 7f or further who had raced within the past 150 days returned a profit on all metrics…
…there are two qualifiers in the next few days – SCENARIO (4.15 Lingfield, Tuesday) and MAEVA (7.55 Doncaster, Wednesday).
At the other end of the league table there are a number of sires whose progeny often struggle in the mud…
BUNGLE INTHEJUNGLE
Backing all progeny of Bungle Inthejungle on actual soft or heavy going returned a loss of £80.00 at SP (-34.63% on turnover).
HAVANA GOLD
Runners sired by Havana Gold have just a 3.83% strike-rate on ground rated as soft or heavy by Proform…
MOUNT OF GOLD (4.15 Lingfield) and HAVANA GILA (4.50 Lingfield) could both struggle on Tuesday, while SEE THAT SPARK might get stuck in the mud in the 5.45 at Doncaster on Wednesday.