This weekend’s racing is certainly less hectic than last week’s when we had “Super Saturday” and while the Super Sprint at Newbury is a turn-off for some punters there are some key stats and angles that we can use to narrow the field (82 runners were declared at the five-day stage and we are almost certain to have the maximum 25 go to post). Newbury’s Hackwood Stakes – a Group 3 contest over the 6f trip – is another good stats race, as is the Group 2 Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh. The 6f nursery at the Curragh could also be worth a second look.
Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Newbury 3.30, Saturday, July 19th
Draw
In the past ten years backing all 133 runners drawn in stall 10 or higher would have found all the winners but returned a loss of £20.67 to a £1 level stake at SP. However, at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) that became a profit of £49.74 (expected winners = 6.32, A/E =1.58).
Last time out winners
Five of the last ten winners won their prep race, though backing all 56 qualifiers returned a small loss at SP (-£0.50). At Betfair SP that became +£30.44 after commission.
Race class last time out
Seven of the last ten winners prepped in Class 1 or 2 company. Backing all 73 qualifiers returned a profit of £4.33 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£59.09 at Betfair SP after commission).
System
Combining a middle to high draw (stall 10+) and last time out winners gave us five winners from 33 bets in the study period for a profit of £22.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.08, A/E = 2.40).
Hallgarten And Novum Wines Hackwood Stakes – Newbury 2.57, Saturday, July 19th
Finishing position last time out
In the past ten years, backing all runners who finish in the top three in their prep race would have found eight winners from 30 bets for a profit of £46.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Days Since Last Run
Runners absent for 29 days or longer are just one from 35 in the past ten years.
System
Combining the above two angles (recent run and top three finish last time out) found seven winners from 21 bets for a profit of £52.00 (there were no qualifiers last year).
Summary
At the time of writing (Tuesday morning) the front five in the antepost market – REGIONAL, ELITE STATUS, IBERIAN, JARRAAF and KIND OF BLUE – all fail to qualify, suggesting that there could be value elsewhere. DILIGENT HARRY, FERROUS and SHAGRAAN are this year’s qualifiers.
Barberstown Castle Sapphire Stakes – Curragh 3.05, Saturday, July 19th
Trainer nationality
British-based trainers have a good recent record in this 5f Group 2 contest…
Backing all 25 qualifiers would have found seven of the past ten winners for a profit of £12.45 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Prep race
Eight of the last ten winners competed at Group 1, 2 or 3 level on their latest start. The other pair contested a handicap. Horses stepping up from Listed level were 0-23…
Summary
British-trained MGHEERA, RUMSTAR, ROGUE LIGHTNING and NIGHTEYES look the ones to concentrate on at this stage.
LAVAZZA SPRINT NURSERY – Curragh 4.50, Saturday, July 19th
Weight rank
In previous articles I’ve debunked the theory that we should always back the top weight in nurseries in Britain but siding with the top weight in the Lavazza Sprint Nursery – the first juvenile handicap run each year at the Curragh – has been a profitable angle, with five winners from nine bets in the past ten years (there was no renewal in COIVD-affected 2020)…
…backing them blind returned a profit of £8.88 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Trainers
Joseph O’Brien has sent out four winners from just seven runners (+£7.75) and he could be represented by WHICH WOLF WINS this year.
Finishing position last time out
All nine winners finished in the top four last time out, with eight of them securing a top three position in their prep race…
Race class last time out
Those stepping up from the equivalent of Class 5 company won seven of the nine races in the study period for a small profit at Betfair SP…
Course last time out
Five of the nine winners prepped at Bellewstown or Fairyhouse and backing all 17 qualifiers returned a profit of £6.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Number of previous runs
All winners had raced between two and four times previously. Those who had raced just twice were two from four for a profit of £3.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Summary
The two runners of interest at this early stage are PARKISDE LAD, winner of a Bellewstown maiden last time out, and NAKAMURA, third at 125-1 behind Charles Darwin on his second start, and not beaten far when third at Roscommon last time.