York’s Ebor meeting is over for another year but I want to use this week’s column to highlight some angles that are likely to throw up future winners…
The Melrose
Front-runners have a poor record in the Melrose and, since 2017, backing those horses on their next start has been a profitable exercise…
…with four winners from ten runners for a profit of £6.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£6.64 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Six of the ten qualifiers started as favourite or second favourite in their next race, with four winning for a profit of £10.00 at SP and the others running second (9-4) and fourth (9-2). This year’s Melrose pacesetter was 125-1 outsider Steel Raven who weakened to finish a long last. He won’t be in many horse trackers after that performance, but a class drop, shorter trip and smaller field could see him bounce back to the form that saw him land a 1m2f Pontefract maiden in July. Ninth-placed Mythical Bay pressed the early leader and is another who will appreciate a smaller field next time. Andrew Balding’s New bay gelding has form figures in fields of seven or fewer runners since his racecourse debut of 1311 (3-4).
The Nunthorpe
Prior to the Nunthorpe I discussed the poor record of those ridden patiently and how the speed usually holds up even when the race features multiple front-runners. This is the record of Nunthorpe participants by running style since 2015…
…all 92 runners ridden patiently (H = held up) were beaten (expected winners = 3.98) but what happened to these horses next time out? Of the 71 to run subsequently in Britain/Ireland only six won (I had expected the figure to be higher)…
…for a loss of £43.00. However, those who finished in the first five under a patient ride did show a profit…
Ten horses were ridden patiently this year, with 25-1 runner-up Starlust emerging best of them. Rumstar (third, 22-1) and Time For Sandals (fourth, 25-1) also ran well from off the pace.
Harry’s Half Million By Goffs
Relatively few fillies line up in the Goffs-sponsored sales race at York and those that do have a good record at the next time of asking (since 2018)…
…last year, Anthelia fared best of the fillies in fifth place, and she won a Group 3 at Salisbury at odds of 9-2 on her next start. The next filly to cross the line was13th home Saffron Dandy who recorded an 11-1 success at Wolverhampton in January on her first subsequent start and followed up when 25-1 at Lingfield in February. This year the fillies on show were…
Sun Goddess (won, evens)
Speed Of Sound (3rd, 40-1)
Rollthedicebaby (10th, 28-1)
Vollering (11th, 22-1)
Glorious Game (14th, 28-1)
Niewiaoma (18th, 150-1)
5f89y handicap
The Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap (previously run as the Symphony Group Handicap) which opened proceedings at York last Wednesday has been a good source of future winners in recent years. Since 2021, backing beaten horses from that race who ran within three lengths of the winner has been a useful angle, with eight winners from 31 bets 925.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £23.45 to a £1 level stake at SP….
…this year’s qualifiers are Corolla Point and Toca Madera. The last-named was beaten again when making a quick return at York on Saturday but Corolla Point looks especially interesting as he did best of those to race down the middle of the track when the far-side runners dominated. Toca Madera’s three career wins have come in fields of nine or fewer runners in Class 3 company, so after a pair of Class 2 York reverses in fields of 20+, he might op up in small field when dropped in grade.
1m2f handicap
Saturday’s finale – the 1m2f heritage handicap won by Raammee has been a poor race for horses trained relatively locally (within 150 miles). Only once such runner (from 108 qualifiers) has won in the 11 renewals since 2015 – James Horton’s Phantom Flight in 2022, rated 98 at the time and later upped to a mark of 113 after winning multiple times in Listed/Group 3 company. Last year, Tim Easterby’s Per Contra finished second by a neck before going one better (4-1) at Newcastle a couple of runs later and this year’s second – Karl Burke’s Thunder Run – could be the one to take from the race.
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