This week’s article covers the stats and trends for Newbury Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase meeting on Friday and Saturday (November 29th/30th)…
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Friday
12.45 – Coral Racing Club Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
This 2m handicap chase has a good entry at the five-day stage despite the first-place prize money (£11,446.60) being over £1,000 lower than it was ten years ago.
Running style
Two winners made all (L), seven more were prominent (P) throughout, while hold-up (H) horses were just one from 33…
Saturday
12.30 Coral Sir Peter O’Sullevan Memorial Handicap Chase
This is my favourite punting race at the meeting as there are some very strong trends associated with it. Last year, I tipped the 11-1 winner WISEGUY (20-1 advised) in my column for GG.co.uk…
Official rating
Those with an official rating of 135 or higher had a poor record…
Previous chase wins
Those with three or more previous chase wins (in Britain/Ireland) on their CV were just one from 51…
Those with just one chase win to their name were six from 37 (+£17.50), while those who had won twice over fences were three from 34 (-£9.50).
Age
Those aged nine or older failed to register a win from 40 attempts…
Weight rank
Seven of the ten winners were ranked seventh or lower in the weights. There were 11 runners last year and the first three finishers (11-1, 40-1 and 5-2f) were numbers 11, 7 and 10 on the racecard.
System
Those aged eight or younger who were seventh of lower in the weights had a seven from 47 record for a profit of £23.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
System 2
One previous chase win, aged eight or younger, official rating of 134 or lower…
2.15 Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Gerry Feilden)
Running style
This has been a good race for front-runners, with five of the past ten winners making all…
Predicting who is going to make the running is not always easy but backing last time out pacesetters would have found three winners from nine bets for a profit of £11.00…
Handicap or non-handicap last time out
Six of the past ten winners prepped in a non-handicap…
…and backing them blind returned a profit of £12.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Race class last time out
Those who prepped in a Class 1 contest (handicap or non-handicap) were six from 23 for a profit of £13.75…
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2.55 Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap)
Weight rank
The top three weights have a combined record of 0-30 in the past ten years…
Sire
Runners with French sires were four from 16 for a profit of £18.50…
Previous chase wins
Six of the past ten winners had won exactly twice over fences previously and backing all 47 qualifiers returned a profit of £45.50…
Previous chase runs
Those with five or fewer chase runs in Britain/Ireland had a poor record…
…failing to register a win from 29 attempts. Those with exactly six chase runs were just one from 23 (-£10.00). The sweet spot is between seven and nine previous chase runs, which has produced seven winners form 49 bets…
Running style
Pace was important with front-runners (L) and prominent racers (P) taking seven of the past ten renewals. Hold-up horses (H) were just three from 107…
3.35 Coral ‘Pipped-At-The-Post’ Payouts Handicap Chase (For The Jim Joel Memorial Trophy)
Weight rank
This has been a good race for those higher up in the weights, with nine of the ten winners ranked first, second, third or fourth in the weights…
…backing all 41 qualifiers returned a profit of £10.88. Those ranked fifth or lower were just one from 53 for a loss of £48.00…
Race class last time out
Six of the ten winners were dropping down from Class 1 level…
…and backing all 30 qualifiers returned a profit of £7.00. Those who prepped at Grade 2 or 3 level did even better…
The Emma Lavelle-trained GENERAL MEDRANO, fourth in a Grade 3 handicap chase at Ascot on his recent reappearance, looks very interesting at this early stage. HOMME PUBLIC, last of six to Thistle Ask on his needed reappearance outing at Wetherby last month, is another possibility.
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