With Aintree (April 9th – 11th) on the horizon Andrew turns his attention to day one of the Grand National meeting.
General angles
Finished first or second in non-handicap company at the Cheltenham Festival
Since 2018, simply backing runners at Aintree’s Grand National meeting who finished first or second in a non-handicap at the Cheltenham festival would have found 27 winners from 74 bets (37.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £16.37 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…those who had been rested for 30 days or longer were nine from 20 (+£14.65)…
Those Cheltenham non-handicap runners who finished third or worse at Prestbury Park didn’t fare so well…
Thursday races
1.45 – Boodles Anniversary 4-Y-O Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 1)
Prep race
Eight of the last ten winners prepped at Cheltenham, five in the Triumph Hurdle. Backing all 22 Triumph runners returned a profit of £4.36…
Horse country of breeding
Eight of the ten winners were French bred, though backing all 39 qualifiers returned a loss of £3.64 at SP (+£2.73 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
Trainers
Willie Mullins’ representatives recorded form figures of F112F1 (3-6) for a profit of £4.00.
2.20 – William Hill Manifesto Novices’ Chase (Grade 1)
Trainers
Paul Nicholls has a poor record, with all 17 of his runners tasting defeat (expected winners = 3.39)…
Age
Six-year-olds have a good recent record…
Trainer nationality
Irish trainers have over-performed…
Days since last race
Those who raced within the past 28 days returned a loss of 50% on turnover (at SP)…
Six of those started as favourite and all were beaten…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners are 0-21 in the past ten years…
2.55 – Aintree Bowl Chase (Grade 1)
SP favourites
The market leader won seven of the past ten renewals…
Last time out winners
LTO winners were 0-8 (I was surprised that so few of the 74 runners were arriving at Aintree on the back of a victory)…
3.30 – Randox Foxhunters’ Open Hunters’ Chase
Running style
Eight of the ten winners raced prominently, front-runners were 0-10 and only two winners (from 174 runners) were ridden patiently…
4.05 – Aintree Hurdle (Grade 1)
Race classification last time out
All ten winners prepped in another Grade 1 (nine of them at Cheltenham) and backing all 37 qualifiers returned a small profit at Betfair SP…
Last time out Grade 1 winners were four from four…
…though the prices were nothing to write home about.
4.40 – Close Brothers Red Rum Handicap Chase (Class 1)
Weight
Eight of the last ten winners carried 10-10 or less…
Weight rank
Horses ranked one through to five in the weights had a poor record…
Race class last time out
Eight of the ten winners prepped in Class 2 or Class 3 company…
Running style
Three winners made all (+£12.00 to a £1 level stake at SP), five were prominent (49 qualifiers, -£4.00) while only two winners (from 88 runners) were ridden patiently (-£41.00)…
Prep race
Those who prepped in the Grand Annual at the Cheltenham festival were 0-39…
