On GG’s Weekend Watch last week, I mentioned the discrepancy between male/female runners when it came to Ralph Beckett’s break returners. Since March 1st this year, Beckett has sent out 44 runners on the back of a break of at least 150 days with nine winning for a profit of £15.55 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£27.13 at Betfair SP after 2% commission…
This was pretty much what the market told us would happen – the expected wins based on their odds was 8.64, giving an actual over expected (A/E) figure of 1.04. However, splitting those runners by sex make interesting reading…
…the fillies were responsible for eight of the nine wins from just 22 runners for a profit of £36.05 at SP (expected wins = 3.75, A/E = 2.13) whereas the colts/geldings weighed in with just one victory from the same number of runners. That was 1-2 favourite Beagle Bay at Chelmsford back in early March. Plenty of the male seasonal debutants have disappointed with the latest qualifier – 15-8 chance Naval Command – finishing sixth at Windsor on Monday night. Other notable flops include Amiloc, (8-13 favourite) who finished sixth at York last week and El Matador (4-7 favourite), runner-up at Lingfield last month.
It will be fascinating to see whether this pattern continues but I’ll certainly be giving the yard’s reappearing fillies a second look alter this week. REVOIR has an entry in the Listed Hedge Of Oak Stakes at Haydock on Saturday (1.45) and could be worth a punt. She was beaten by 59 lengths at Newbury in late October when we last saw her, but has run well on both previous seasonal debuts, winning at Nottingham and finishing second by a short head (10-1) in Listed company at Newbury. On Thursday, SECRET OF LIFE, winner of her sole start at two, reappears in the fillies’ novice stakes at Salisbury.
Another trainer whose break returners have caught the eye is Charlie Johnston. Since March 1st, his record with runners returning from 150 or more days off the track looks like this…
…ten winners from 30 bets for a huge profit of £79.43 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected wins = 3.91, A/E = 2.56). Unlike Ralph Beckett, his colts/geldings contributed several wins though it’s worth noting the high strike-rate of the fillies (45.5%) albeit from a small sample…
The Johnston yard has also displayed a male/female divide when it comes to juvenile newcomers. Since his was the sold name on the training licence, Charlie Johnston’s two-year-old colts/geldings have underperformed against market expectations…
…landing just four of their 122 starts against an expected figure of 14.42 (A/E = 0.28). I highlighted this on William Hill radio on Monday when SWORD SALUTE was vying for favouritism in the 7f maiden at Redcar. The son of Masar drifted late to 11-8 before finishing third behind Karl Burke’s 8-11 market leader Revels but he had clearly been showing something at home and is one for the horse tracker.
The yard’s juvenile fillies have fared much better on their racecourse debuts…
…landing 17 of their 98 starts for a profit of £60.45, though the profits came on the all-weather not turf…
With three-year-old fillies making their racecourse debut the figures are not so rosy…
Other trainers whose three-year-old fillies have failed to live up to market billing on their racecourse debuts include Karl Burke (two from 41 since the beginning of 2021 for a loss of £26.67), David Menuisier (0-29), Richard Fahey (0-39), Kevin Ryan (0-14), Harry Eustace (0-22). Clive Cox (0-19), Roger Varian (eight form 67, -£32.73) and John Gosden (13 from 125, -£68.89).
Second time out is often when to side with the Varian three-year-old fillies, with those returned to the track within four weeks of their debut run landing 12 of their 31 starts in the study period for a profit of £36.40…
…this second time out/recent run angle also works for Karl Burke…
