The build-up to the Cheltenham Festival is firmly on with Trials Day this weekend marking one of the final marker posts on the way to Prestbury Park.
Andrew uses his latest Cheltenham Angles column to take a detailed look at the Ultima Handicap Chase.
Stats and trends
Market Position Last Time Out
Runners who started as favourite (including joint and co-favourites) in their prep races have won five of the past ten renewals of the Ultima. Backing all 26 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 2.19, A/E = 2.28)…
Market Position
The market has been a good guide to the Ultima in recent years, with nine of the last ten winners returning at an SP of 11-1 or shorter. Backing all 60 qualifiers returned a profit of £20.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…last year’s six qualifiers included the 13-2 winner, 7-1 runner-up and 11-1 fifth (plenty of firms were paying five or even six places) and backing all the qualifiers each-way is a system I have been following for several years now.
Country of Breeding
Nine of the last ten winners were Irish bred…
Trainer Nationality
This has not been a good race for Irish trainers (0-37 in the last ten years)…
Headgear
Eight of the last ten winners wore blinkers, cheekpieces, a tongue-tie or a combination of headgear. However, this has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy as we sometimes see most of the field wearing headgear (e.g. 19 of the 23 runners in 2020). Last year, 13 runners wore headgear and all were beaten.
Running Style
One winner made all, six more were prominent, while only three winners (from 147 runners) were ridden patiently…
System
Irish breds who started at 11-1 or shorter (SP) were nine from 44 for a profit of £39.00…
Likely contenders
MYRETOWN, tipped in my column at 14-1, returned as the 13-2 favourite when bolting up in this race last year. His jumping remains an obvious worry, but stablemate Corach Rambler won this race back-to-back and it would be no surprise to see him follow suit. His current odds range from 8-1 to 12-1 and, after his Peter Marsh defeat, he’ll surely go for this race rather than the Gold Cup.
JAGWAR has yet to run beyond 2m4.5f and he also lacks experience on Cheltenham’s Old Course (his record on the New Course reads 113). He won the Plate Handicap Chase at last season’s festival and that race is more likely to be on the agenda again.
DEEP CAVE will bid to make if three wins from three chase starts for his current handler in Saturday’s Great Yorkshire Chase (January 24th). After he landed the 3m handicap hurdle at last season’s Aintree festival trainer Christian Williams was quoted as follows “He had a break to freshen him up and then we targeted this meeting. It’s probably taken us a long time to figure him out, but we thought he’d be better on nice ground and he’s going to be very special over fences next year. He won a novice chase in France, so he’s not a novice, but he’ll hopefully be a Saturday horse.” He has certainly lived up to that billing so far this term and he has to be on the early shortlist.
The Fergal O’Brien-trained IN D’OR finished a respectable 40-1 sixth of 18 to Haiti Couleurs in the 3m6f novices’ handicap chase at last season’s Cheltenham festival despite not seeing out the trip. However, his wins for Venetia Williams came in small fields on right-handed tracks and his record left-handed stands at 3526 (0-4) with the runner-up effort when 4-7 favourite.
IMPERIAL SAINT appreciated the return to a flat track when landing a huge gamble in the Peter Marsh Chase at Haydock and I expected his connection will bypass Cheltenham in favour of Aintree.
PANIC ATTACK has progressed massively this season, making it three from three when justifying 1-4 favouritism in a mares’ Listed chase at Newbury in mid-January. Prior to this season, she’s never won outside of mares-only company but took the Paddy Power Gold Cup and the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase against male rivals on her first two outings and this huge field will hold no fears.
THE DOYEN CHIEF is ground dependent, recording form figures on good or faster ground (based on race times, not the official going) of 1131151 (5-7). On good to soft or softer going his record reads 21U322P (1-7), with the win at odds of 1-2. His chase wins have come in fields of nine or fewer runners and he’s unlikely to encounter his preferred underfoot conditions.
HYLAND has a strong seasonal pattern to his form and has failed to score in the late November to February period, recording form figures of 4433362247 (0-10). He’s won seven of his 16 starts outside of that time frame (+£16.88 to a £1 level stake at SP).
TWIG gamely landed the Becher Chase after a titanic battle with Mr Vango to make it two from two for the season. Ben Pauling’s ten-year-old finished second at 28-1 to Chianti Classico in this race two years ago on heavy ground. His record in handicap chases reads 1120257011 (4-10) for a profit of £19.20 to a £1 level stake at SP and he could reach a place again.
ASK BREWSTER is on my radar as a potential dark horse for one or more of the spring festivals. Evan Williams’ seven-year-old has a poor record in the depths of winter, recording form figures from November to February of 448338P55 (0-9), but in the warmer months his record stands at 11111 (5-5) for a profit of £27.16 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Conclusion
I’m expecting big things of ASK BREWSTER this spring and I certainly wouldn’t talk anyone out of backing him at this early stage if they can be on with a non-runner no bet (NRNB) concession. Last year’s winner MYRETOWN and DEEP CAVE are also of interest.