This week’s column takes a look ahead at Saturday’s ITV races and identifies the stats and trends that might point us towards a winner or two…
#AD 18+ New cust: Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports Bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on eSports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply.
Aintree, Saturday, November 8th
2.40 – Grand Sefton Handicap Chase
Days since last run
Six of the past ten winners were having their second run back after a break of 150 days or longer and backing all 47 qualifiers produced a profit of £31.50…
King Turgeon (9-2) won this last year on the back of a Chepstow win, but good recent form has not always been the best guide to Grand Sefton success. Runners who arrived at Aintree after a top-three finish in their prep race were just two from 59 for a loss of £47.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Laying all qualifiers at Betfair SP returned a profit of £45.05 after 2% commission (+76.36% on turnover)…
Finishing position last time out
System
Backing those runners who were fourth or worse last time out, having their second run after a break of at least 150 days, would have found five winners from 28 bets for a profit of £45.00…
This system doesn’t always produce a qualifier – there were none last year and just an 80-1 shot (who finished a respectable seventh) in 2023.
Wincanton, Saturday, November 8th
1.45 – BetMGM Paul & Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle
Handicap or non-handicap last time out
The past ten renewals of this 2m5f Class 2 mares’ handicap hurdle have gone to horses who prepped in another handicap…
…and backing all 63 qualifiers returned a profit of £11.68 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who prepped in non-handicap company were 0-28 (expected winners = 3.28)/ Paul Nicholls’ JUBILEE ALPHA, the 7-2 antepost favourite, falls down on this stat.
Those who prepped in a mares’ handicap (hurdle or chase) fared even better…
…with all ten winners qualifying on this angle. Backing the 33 qualifiers returned a profit of £41.68 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Class level last time out
Runners who prepped in Class 4 company had a 0-35 record in the study period…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners had a poor record…
…JUBILEE ALPHA also falls down on this angle.
System
Runners who prepped in a non-Class 4 mares’ handicap hurdles had a phenomenal record…
…landing all ten renewals from just 22 runners for a profit of £52.68 (expected winners = 2.99).
At the time of writing the six horses trading at 8-1 or shorter all fail to qualify on this angle. SUNSET MARQUESA and LOVE OF NEYMORE are both on my radar at this early stage.
#AD 18+ New cust: Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports Bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on eSports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply.
3.30 – 64th Badger Beers Handicap Chase
Running style
Early pace has been the key ingredient to success in this 3m1f premier handicap, in which Al Dancer (“pressed leaders led 2nd”) caused a 25-1 upset last year. In the past ten years, front-runners won three times and prominent racers on seven occasions, whereas the 70 runners ridden patiently (‘H’ = held up in the table below) failed to muster a win between them…
Pace rank
The software I use to research systems allots a pace ranking to each runner based on running style in their last three races (1 = most likely to take the early lead) and nine of the last ten Badger Beer winners were ranked in the top four…
Doncaster, Saturday, November 8th
1.25 – Virgin Bet Supports Safe Gambling Wentworth Stakes
Running style
This 6f Listed contest usually goes to a hold-up horse, with nine of the past ten winners (when the race was staged at Doncaste) coming from off the pace …
Draw
Nine of the last ten winners were drawn in stall 7 or lower. Those drawn 8 or higher were just one from 59…
3.45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap
Draw
In recent years, a low draw has been difficult to overcome in this 1m4f handicap. Backing stalls 1 to 7 in the past ten renewals to take place at Doncaster (the 2019 renewal was transferred to the all-weather at Newcastle) would have failed to find a winner from 70 bets…
#AD 18+ New cust: Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports Bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on eSports and non-UK/IE horse racing. 18+. T&Cs apply.