In his latest column Andrew runs through the stats, trends and systems that could help us to find a winner or two on Newmarket’s Saturday card where the Group 1 July Cup takes centre stage…
1.40 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Stakes (Class 3)
Previous experience
This race was elevated from Class 4 to Class 3 in 2018 and, since that change in conditions, five of the winners were making their racecourse debut, three had raced just once and horses with two previous runs under their belts were 0-11…
Trainers
Charlie Appleby has taken this three times in recent years whereas all four Aidan O’Brien runners were beaten…
3rd 201
5th 7-4
3rd 11-4
2nd 15-2
…O’Brien could be represented by Curragh maiden runner-up Haffner, Oklahoma, also second in a Curragh maiden on his debut, or Shakespeare.
2.15 – Newmarket Racecourses Fillies’ Handicap (Class 2)
Distance last time out
Since 2015, thirteen runners prepped in a sprint race (5f-6f) and all were beaten…
Weight rank
Top weights have fared well, winning three of the last ten renewals for a profit of £11.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Distance travelled
Newmarket yards have won the past ten renewals…
…and backing all 60 qualifiers returned a profit of £16.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those trained away from Newmarket were 0-31 in the study period…
Market position last time out
Fifteen horses started as favourite for their prep race, and all were beaten…
…including nine last time out winners.
System
Newmarket-trained runners who didn’t start as favourite last time out had a ten from 48 record in the past ten renewals for a profit of £28.50…
…this year’s qualifiers include Song N Dance, Tarot and Cherry Baker.
2.52 – bet365 Mile Handicap (Class 2)
Distance travelled
Seven of the ten winners were trained in Newmarket and backing all 46 qualifiers returned a profit of £9.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. Two of the three exceptions were won by the Hannon yard, the other by Ralph Beckett.
Foaling month
Six winners were April foals, who might now be batching up with their more mature peers…
…backing all 27 qualifiers returned a profit of £32.00 at SP.
Prep race
Five of the ten winners prepped at Ascot and backing all 23 qualifiers returned a profit of £15.50 at SP.
3.25 – Betway Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap)
Days since last run
Those absent for 43 days or longer are 0-22 since 2015 (11 renewals).
Distance travelled
Eight of the 11 runners in the study period travelled more than 125 miles to Newmarket, though backing all 81 qualifiers returned a small loss at SP. Those who prepped over a trip of 7f or shorter had a good record…
…with seven winners from 57 runners (+£7.50 SP, +£23.96 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
4.35 – Al Basti Equiworld Darley July Cup Stakes (Group 1)
Age
Three and four-year-olds have won the last ten renewals, with the four-year-olds showing a big profit…
…mostly thanks to the 6-1 success of No Half Measures 12 months ago.
Draw
Stalls 1, 2 and 3 have a combined record of 0-30…
Stalls 4 and 5 often struggled too, with just Starman (9-2) winning, Lumping stalls 1-5 together gives the following results…
System
Horses aged three or four who were drawn in stall 6 or higher were nine from 46 for a profit of £90.00 at SP…
…last year’s six qualifiers included the 66-1 winner and 12-1 runner-up, while in 2024 the three qualifiers included the 11-1 winner and 22-1 second, making this an interesting angle when it comes to the Tote Exacta. This system also produced the winner from just one selection in 2023, the 1-2-3 from six picks in 2022, the first two home in 2020 (12-1 beat 3-1) and again in 2019 (9-2 beat 3-1).
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