There’s a cracking meeting at Newbury on Saturday where the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes takes centre stage. I want to use this week’s column to discuss one of the supporting races – the 1m2f London Gold Cup Handicap.
This heritage handicap has often been a springboard to Group-race glory, as we can see from the list of winners since 2010…
2010 winner GREEN MOON started the ball rolling in the modern era, following up in Listed company at Newbury and going on to score multiple times in Group company in Australia, culminating in the 2012 Melbourne Cup. AL KAZEEM, successful in 2011 for Roger Charlton, bowed out with victory in the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup at the Curragh and is now a leading sire. TIME TEST, also trained by Roger Charlton, won the 2015 renewal off a mark of 93 and was rated 121 when landing the Group 2 York Stakes the following summer. Mark Johnston’s COMMUNIQUE was rated 84 when scoring in 2018 and added six more wins, twice at Group 2 level. BAY BRIDGE was rated just 90 when scoring by four lengths for Sir Michael Stoute in 2021 and ended his career on 121 after wins in Group 1, Group 2 and Group 3 company. ISRAR (2022) scored off 89 and was later rated 115 after scoring in Group 2 and Listed company. Last year’s winner KING’S GAMBIT has failed to score since, but his mark rose from 93 to 116 after several good efforts in Group company.
Since 2010, simply backing every runner from the London Gold Cup on their next start, regardless of where the finished at Newbury, would have found 28 winners from 157 bets (17.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £32.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 22.19, A/E = 1.26)…
Backing only those who ran in Class 1 or Class 2 company increased the profit to £47.13 (+£68.00 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
Now let’s turn our attention to this year’s race and see if we can spot the potential future star…
Stats and Trends
Market Position
Favourites (including joint-favourites) are six from 15 since 2010 for a profit of £10.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. All 14 winners came from the top six in the betting.
Horse Sex
Colts led geldings by 13-1 in the study period. The last successful gelding was Expensive Claim in 2012.
Running Style
Front-runners (2-15, 13.3% strike-rate) returned a profit of £2.50 to a £1 level stake at SP, prominent racers were 5-45 (11.1%, +£7.00) while hold-up horses had a strike-rate of just 6.5% (7-107. -£64.50).
Running Style Last Time Out
Horses ridden patiently in their prep race were 1-57 (-£53.00). The expected number of winners was 4.96.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Last time out winners had a modest record (5-69, -£37.00 to a £1 level stake at SP). Seven winners (from 48) runners finished second or third in their prep race (+£10.00).
Prep Race
Ten of the 14 winners prepped in a non-handicap (expected winners = 5.34, A/E = 1.87). Only four winners from 97 runners prepped in handicap company (expected winners = 8.73, A/E = 0.46).
Trainers
This has not been a good race for the Hannon yard (0-18). The Charlton yard has form figures of 111191 (5-6) in the study period for a profit of £26.00 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Draw
Stalls 1, 2 and 3 have a combined record of seven winners from 42 bets for a profit of £20.00…
System
Backing runners who prepped in non-handicap company and who started in the first six in the betting at Newbury found ten winners from 34 bets for a profit of £32.00 (expected winners = 4.29, A/E = 2.33)…
This angle has found eight of the last ten winners, with the two blank years (2022 and 2018) producing a placed horse from just one qualifier (Surrey Mist 7-1, second by half a length to Israr, and 7-1 third Chief Ironside, who went two places better at Newmarket next time). Knocking out geldings and runners who were given a patient ride last time out would eliminate six of the losers, taking the score to 10-28 for a profit of £38.00.
The Main Contenders
This Saturday’s renewal features 14 runners at the four-day declaration stage and the Charlton yard is represented by WAVE RIDER, runner-up by a short head to Red Sand in a 7f novice at Wolverhampton on his reappearance last month. The winner/third from that race clash again in the 4.18 at York on Wednesday and a good run from one or both could see the son of Belardo shorten considerably in the betting.
NEBRAS drops in grade after his runner-up effort to Alpine Trail in Listed company at Newmarket earlier this month and his yard won this with Israr in 2022.
The William Haggas-trained ARCHIVIST heads the early betting and has finished second in all four starts since his racecourse debut, latterly in a five-runner novice contest at Nottingham on his first run since leaving Sir Michael Stoute’s care. This sometimes-keen sort met trouble in running that day and will hopefully settle better in a bigger field.
SADDADD has experience of this course and distance, having finished second to Gethin on good ground last month. However, that form looks weak, with third-placed Mariner beaten by eight lengths when 11-8 favourite for Chester maiden last week.
Conclusion
Hard to call at this early stage without knowing the final field, draw and likely pace scenario. Recent renewals suggest that we should pay close attention to anything that the Charlton yard runs and I’ll make WAVE RIDER the tentative pick. Tune in to GG’s Weekend Watch podcast and YouTube channel on Thursday for my final thoughts.