We’re only a couple of weeks away from York’s Ebor meeting – one of my favourite fixtures of the flat racing calendar – and I wanted to use this week’s column to look at some punting angles for the first day (Wednesday 20th August)…
1.50 – Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap
Stats and trends
Age
This 5f89y handicap has been part of York’s Ebor meeting since 2009 and it has never been won by a three-year-old…
Horse sex
All winners since 2009 were geldings. Fillies, mares, colts and entire horses had a combined record of 0-45…
Running style
Three of the last ten winners made the running and the other seven raced prominently. Horses ridden patiently were 0-108…
Proform’s pace ratings are a useful predictor, with those with a rating between 0 and 4 (on a scale of 1-12) providing just one winner from 107 bets for a loss of £92.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Draw
Six of the past ten winners were drawn in stall 6 or lower…
Days since last run
All 16 previous winners had raced within the past four weeks. Those absent for 29 days or longer were 0-62.
System
Those aged four or older with a Proform pace rating of between 6 and 12 have won nine of the past ten renewals (from 84 runners) for a profit of £52.00…
…those who had raced within the past 28 days were nine from 67 for a profit of £69.00…
Summary
With no declarations at the time of writing it’s difficult to identify a selection at this stage, though JORDAN ELECTRICS was a close second to Jm Jungle in this race 12 months ago and looks to have been laid out for the race again. Post-race, it is worth noting any three-year-olds who run well. In 2022 Live In The Dream fared best of the classic generation in sixth and he went on to win the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes when returned to the Ebor meeting 12 months later. In 2023 Jm Jungle (third at 12-1) fared best of the three-year-olds and went two places better the following season before making his mark in Group company. Last year, SHAGRAAN, sent off as the 5-1 favourite, emerged best of the three-year-olds when fifth of 22 to Jm Jungle and landed a gamble at Haydock next time out. His only subsequent York outing Saw him finish fourth of 17 behind subsequent Group-race winners American Affair and Jm Jungle and he could go well if taking in this race again.
2.25 – Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes
Stats and trends
Race classification last time out
Those whose latest start came in a Group 1 contest have won six of the past ten renewals and backing all 15 qualifiers returned a profit of £13.75 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Finishing position last time out
Last time out winners have a modest recent record.
Distance last time out
Runners who prepped over 1m5f or further last time out have a poor record in the past ten years…
Summary
Most of the entries are set to arrive her on the back of a victory so the modest recent record of last time out winners might not prove to be helpful when it comes to narrowing the field. MERCHANT impressed at Goodwood when landing the Gordon Stakes as the flag start assisted the prominent racers and he was ridden patiently. He could prove hard to beat.
4.10 – Sky Bet Stayers Handicap
Stats and trends
Age
This 2m heritage handicap has only been open to three-year-olds in the past five seasons but none have run in that period.
Horse sex
The past ten winners were geldings. Filles, mares, colts and entires had a combined record of 0-20.
Weight
Top weights (including joint top weights) were 0-11 in the past ten years.
Those ranked in the top five in the weights were just one from 53…
Finishing position last time out
Eight of the last ten winners had recorded a top-three finish last time out…
…and backing all 64 qualifiers returned a profit of £7.75 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Running style
Seven of the past ten winners were ridden patiently, while the other three were prominent. Front-runners were 0-11.
System
Those ranked sixth or lower in the weights who finished in the top three last time out were eight from 49 for a profit of £22.75. Add in the proviso that they were ridden patiently last time out, and the score was seven from 23 (+£39.75)…
5.20 – Sky Bet Nursery Handicap
Stats and trends
Running style
Eight of the past ten winners of this 6f nursery led or raced prominently.
Finishing position last time out
Seven of the last ten winners had been successful in their prep race and backing all 58 qualifiers retuned a profit…
Those who started as favourite when winning last time out fared even better…
