Day three of the York Ebor meeting has now been analysed by Andrew Mount, as his latest angles column has pointers for races like the Lonsdale Cup and Nunthorpe Stakes.
Day 3 – Friday, August 22
1.50 Sky Bet Handicap
Age
Three-year-olds are 0-14 in the past ten runnings of this 1m4f heritage handicaps. Ten of the 11 winners (there was a dead-heat in 2015) were aged four. The exception was the 89-rated five-year-old Sam Cooke in 2021 who was later rated as high as 104. Backing all the four-year-olds returned a healthy profit…
Days since last run
Those who raced within the past 20 days had a poor record…
System
Four-year-olds who had been rested for at least three weeks had a ten from 34 record for a profit of £90.50…
2.25 – Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup
Age
Eight of the last ten winners were aged five or six, with both groups returning a profit at SP (+£1.57 and +£23.75 respectively)…
Front-running six-year-old AL QAREEM, a winner over 1m6f here the last twice, could enjoy the run of the race and might be the value play of seven-year-olds TRAWLERMAN and ABSURDE.
3.00 – AL Basti Equiworld Dubai Gimcrack Stakes
Sire country of breeding
Runners from US sires have a good recent record…
…two of the beaten horses finished second (14-1 and 11-2) and another ran third (17-2).
3.35 – Coolmore Wootton Bassett Nunthorpe Stakes
Running style
Don’t look at the Nunthorpe and think “it’s packed full of early pace, the race will be set up for a closer” as those ridden patiently are 0-73 in the past ten years…
Age
Two-year-olds are 0-6 in the past ten years, though two of them finished second and the record of three-year-olds in the study period (one from 38) is more worrying…
Horse sex
Colts are just one from 37 in the past ten renewals and entire horses zero from eight…
Sire country of breeding
All winners had a British or Irish sire…
Finishing position last time out
Eight of the ten winners finished in the top three in their prep race…
System
Backing runners aged four or older that finished in the top three last time out, excluding colts and entires, produced the following results…
…those with a British or Irish sore fared even better…
5.20 – Sky Bet Mile Handicap
Weight rank
Those in the top three in the weights have a modest record in the past ten years…
Days since last run
Nine of the last ten winners had prepped between 20 and 42 days ago…
System
Combine a prep run between 20 and 42 days ago with a weight ranking of fourth or lower….
