The fourth day of York’s Ebor meeting occurs this Saturday. Having given his thoughts on the first three days on the Knavesmire already, here is Andrew Mount’s latest angles column on day four.
Day 4 – Saturday, August 23
1.50 – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes
Days since last run
Runners absent for more than five weeks are 0-19 in the past ten years (expected winners = 3.13)…
Recent form
Last time out winners have shown a profit in the past ten renewals, with five wins from 16 bets for a profit of £5.50 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…those who raced within the past five weeks were five from 11 (+£10.50)…
FOX LEGACY has recorded form figures of 1611 (3-4) since joining Andrew Balding, with the sole defeat in the Royal Hunt Cup when best of those to race down the centre and was a winner at Goodwood 22 days ago.
2.25 – Sky Bet Melrose Handicap
Days since last run
Those runners who were returning from a break of five weeks or more were just one from 52 in the past ten years…
Running style
Eight of the past ten winners came from off the pace (H = held up). The other two were prominent (P) throughout while front-runners (L = led) were 0-18.
Proform’s software awards a pace rating on a scale of one to 12 based on the last three runs (led = 4pts, P = 2pts, held up = 0pt) and nine of the past ten winners had a pace rating of four or lower…
…and backing them blind returned a small profit at SP (+£6.50) and a healthy £34.93 at Betfair SP (after 2% commission). The sole year came in 2018 when Charlie Appleby’s Ghostwatch won after receiving the comments “tracked winner”, “mid-division” and “tracked leading pair” on his three previous starts, giving him a pace rating of six. Last year’s four qualifiers with a pace rating of six or higher finished ninth, tenth, 14th and 16th and it was a similar story in 2023 when they came home sixth, seventh, ninth and 13th. This year’s 5-1 joint favourites Push The Limit and Tarriance have both raced prominently in at least two of their last three starts.
System
Backing those with a Proform pace rating of between zero and four (i.e. likely to be ridden patiently), who last raced between one and 34 days ago were eight from 70 in the past ten years for a profit of £28.50 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£55.51 at Betfair SP)…
Only four of the 70 qualifiers were making their handicap debuts and two won (10-1 and 9-2) with the others running second (3-1) and tenth (66-1).
3.35 – Sky Bet Ebor Handicap
Recent form
The last ten winners all finished in the top six in their prep race. Those that didn’t were 0-54…
Trainer nationality
It’s a 5 v 5 draw between British and Irish-based handlers in the past ten years, though the Irish runners came from a much small sample (36 v 167) and returned a profit of £15.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. It’s also worth noting that there was only one Irish runner in COVIF-affected 2020, Joseph O’Brien’s Pondus who finished 20th of 21.
SP rank last time out
Five winners (from just 38 runners) started as favourite for their prep race and they returned a healthy profit…
Last year’s four qualifiers included the 11-2 winner and 25-1 runner-up, while in 2023 the four qualifiers include the first three home (7-1, 5-2 and 11-1)
4.45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes
Race class last time out
Nine of the last ten winners of this 5f contest had prepped in a Class 2 contest…
…and backing all 50 qualifiers returned a profit of £26.38 (thanks to 2015 winner Shadow Hunter who returned at 33-1).
SP rank LTO
Those who started as favourite for their prep race were 0-28…
Finishing position last time out
2020 scorer Acklam Express won his prep race in a COVID-affected year but all other winners were beaten last time out…
5.20 – Sky Bet Steve Birch Finale Handicap
Nine of the ten winners had travelled more than 150 miles from their training base…
…backing all 61 qualifiers returned a profit of £18.83 to a £1 level stake at SP…
