York’s Ebor meeting is over for another year but I want to use this week’s column to highlight some angles that are likely to throw up future winners…
The Melrose
In my recent set of articles about York’s Ebor meeting I mentioned how well patiently-ridden runners have fared in the Melrose Handicap in recent years, with eight of the last ten winners coming from off the pace. That sequence was maintained in last Saturday’s renewal in which TARRIANCE (“held up in midfield”) narrowly denied my Weekend Watch pick MANY MEN (“towards rear”). Since 2017, backing Melrose front-runners on their next start has been a profitable exercise…
…with four winners from nine runners for a profit of £7.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£7.64 at Betfair SP after 2% commission). Five of the nine qualifiers started as favourite or second favourite in their next race, with four winning for a profit of £11.00 and the other running second at 9-4. This year’s Melrose pacesetter for CAPE BRETON, who finished tenth at odds of 18-1. Ralph Beckett’s gelding had caught the eye when a 16-1 fourth at Glorious Goodwood the time before, doing best of those to race up with the pace in a 1m4f handicap dominated by the closers and will find another race or two on a track kinder to his running style.
The Nunthorpe
Prior to the Nunthorpe I discussed the poor record of those ridden patiently and how the speed usually holds up even when the race features multiple front-runners. This is the record of Nunthorpe participants by running style since 2015…
…all 82 runners ridden patiently (H = held up) were beaten (expected winners = 3.55) but what happened to these horses next time out? Of the 62 to run subsequently in Britain/Ireland only six won (I had expected the figure to be higher)…
…for a loss of £34.00. However, those who finished in the top four under a patient ride did show a profit…
Nine horses were ridden patiently this year, with 100-1 runner-up AIN’T NOBODY emerging best of them. He’s in the Sprint Cup at Haydock next month and could again run well at a big price.
Harry’s Half Million By Goffs
Relatively few fillies line up in the Goffs-sponsored sales race at York (three winners from 41 in the past 11 seasons) and those that do have a good record at the next time of asking…
…Super Sprint winner ANTHELIA fared best of the fillies in fifth place and will be of interest next time. SAFFRON DANDY (50-1 13th), PARODA DIVA (250-1 14th), GAME STRIKER (125-1 17th), DIAMOND ALEXANDER (200-1 19th) and COTAI BELLE (11-1 21st) were the other fillies in the race.
5f89y handicap
The Hong Kong Jockey Club World Pool Handicap (previously run as the Symphony Group Handicap) has been a graveyard for three-year-olds (0-35 since this race’s inception in 2009), though last week’s sole qualifier THE MAN ran a stormer to finish second by a head. Several of the three-year-olds that have run well in defeat in this 5f89y contest have gone on to better things, including Jm Jungle (third in 2023), who returned 12 months later to win the same race before making his mark in Group company this term, and Live In The Dream, sixth in 2022 before causing a 28-1 shock in the Nunthorpe a year later. Last year, five three-year-olds contested the race and two of them won well backed at the next time of asking (5-1 and 9-4).