Getting a lengthy ante-post price for a big race is one of the joys of punting. With September promising a great mixture of top class Group 1s and handicaps, we have picked out three early ante post horse racing tips in the Sprint Cup, and Newmarket’s Cheveley Park Stakes and Cambridgeshire Handicap.
Saturday 7th September – Betfair Sprint Cup @ Haydock – Annaf @ 33/1 with BetVictor
BetVictor are the only bookmaker going 33/1 about ANNAF for the Sprint Cup at Haydock. They could be seen as fairly prophetic given Mick Appleby’s charge will have been without a run in 196 days by the time of the race, either suggesting he is an unlikely runner, or that he will be too fresh.
However, he was back on the gallops as of a month ago, and this remains one of just two entries for a horse who was seriously on the up the last time he was racing. He has won three of his last four races, claiming his first Group race at Ascot last October, before stepping up to win a Group 2 in Saudi Arabia back in February.
That was the last we saw of him on track, but if he is back in serious work, this is a logical next step for a horse who has maintained his form after similar breaks before. He already has a Group 1 place to his name when third in last year’s King’s Stand at Royal Ascot and was seventh in this when very unlucky not to finish nearer. That was the last race before his recent prolific streak, and there is promise from his pedigree that he may be about to reach his peak aged five.
The sprinting divisions in the UK have hinted throughout the season that there are few superstars in their ranks. This is therefore a winnable opportunity if he turns up fully tuned.
Saturday 28th September – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes @ Newmarket – Leovanni @ 14/1 Generally
Six of the last ten winners of the Cheveley Park Stakes have hailed from Ireland, five of those being sent across by a member of the O’Brien family. Therefore, it is not too much of a surprise to see Irish-trained runners dominating the market, but the hosts may have a high class filly of their own who has been partly forgotten about by the market.
That horse is LEOVANNI, who has drifted to a bigger price than her recent York conqueror Celandine. However, Karl Burke’s filly is still more than likely the stronger horse, with her early season form lasting in the memory. Plenty of subsequent winners have emerged from the Group 2 Queen Mary Stakes and Leovanni won that race with authority.
Her third at York was perhaps slightly disappointing, but that was still a decent race, and there were excuses for her. She ended up being shuffled back and racing on what was the slowest part of the track throughout the week. While the whole field broadly favoured that side too, Leovanni came closest to the stands rail and still managed to close past the majority of her rivals, all while carrying a 3lb penalty for her Royal Ascot success.
Having raced prominently when victorious on her first two starts, she is fancied to break more forwardly at Newmarket, at which racing up with the pace is almost always preferable. Should she be able to, overturning York running with Celandine, who led all the way on the Knavesmire, should be more than achievable, and that would put her in the firing line for upsetting the Irish brigade.
Saturday 28th September – bet365 Cambridgeshire @ Newmarket – Dual Identity @ 33/1 Generally
As ever with a big-field handicap, unexposed types hold sway in the betting, but a touch of experience has gone a long way in the Cambridgeshire in recent years. Two of the last six runnings have gone to six-year-olds, while the last two three-year-old victors have gone on to be Group race quality, with Lord North becoming a multiple Group 1 winner later in his career.
The likes of Rio De France and Thunder Run could be up to that level soon, but it is still relatively early days for both if they run here. At twice their prices, the time may soon come for DUAL IDENTITY, who has not been far off an extremely productive season for William Knight.
The son of Belardo was tenth in this last year when ridden prominently, but a lot of his near success this term has come from being restrained. That worked wonders for his victory at Sandown in May, for which he remains only 4lb higher despite twice going close to backing that up, first over that same course and distance in Surrey, and more recently at York over 1m2½f. That latter effort is worth upgrading given how difficult it is to make headway from behind horses on the Knavesmire.
He will be able to run off the same mark of 97 with the entries already in here, and the drop back to 1m1f could prove to be a perfect formula. This mark comfortably guarantees him a run, and the last three winners of this have raced in midfield or colder.
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